Block Scholes x Bybit Crypto Derivatives 12th July
Futures: Future-implied yields have recovered from their spike lower, but continue their downward trend over the month. Perps: Despite the recent bearish price action, we don’t see a widespread or persistently negative funding rate in perpetual swap markets except for TON. Open Interest in majors has fallen during the period of spot market volatility as traders close out positions Options: ETH volatility trades at a 10–15 point premium to BTC’s at all tenor points on the term structure, has recovered its volatility smile skew toward OTM calls much faster than BTC, and has seen incredible trade volumes in calls that far outweigh the activity in its puts. ETH derivatives markets continue to reflect different positioning when compared to BTC, which may be linked to hopes and expectations of the imminent launch of its first Spot ETFs in the U.S. However, ETH’s volatility premium above BTC is not a new phenomenon, and is also reflected in the increased realized volatility with which it has moved for much of the past month.
Block Scholes BTC Senti-Meter Index
Block Scholes ETH Senti-Meter Index
Block Scholes’ Senti-Meter index aggregates the funding rate, future-implied yield,and volatility smile skew into a single expression of sentiment in derivatives markets — see more in the methdology article here.
Macro, Tech & Regs
Macro Calendar & Recent Events
- US PCE — June 28, 2024 — The Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation showed a rate of 0.0% for the month of May after remaining persistently sticky in the first two quarters of the year.
- EU HICP — July 2, 2024 — Inflation in Euro area down, at 2.5% YoY.
- France Legislative Elections — Le Pen’s National Rally fail to secure majority, and French government bonds retain much of their yield spread above German bunds.
- U.S. Presidential Election — President Biden faces renewed pressure to drop out of his re-election bid following his debate performance last month.
- U.S. CPI — July 11, 2024 — The final inflation read ahead of the Fed’s July meeting came in below analysts’ expectations at 3.0% YoY, prompting a fall in short-term bond yields.
- Federal Reserve Meeting — July 31, 2024 — Expected to hold rates steady at 5–5.25% target range.
U.S. CPI — Headline YoY inflation rate falls below 3% for the first time this year as core goods remain deflationary
Blockchain Tech Updates
- Ethereum Pectra upgrade — Q4 2024/Q1 2025
Futures Volumes Rise During Spot Volatility
While annualized yields slipped lower during the selloff in Spot prices earlier in the week, both BTC and ETH futures have since recovered, although now trade at slightly lower levels. We also see a steeper term structure of yields in both markets as short-tenor futures trade much closer to Spot, while longer-tenor futures trade higher.
The expiration of June’s futures on June 28, 2024 didn’t see an explosive increase in trade volumes, but since then we’ve seen open interest has increased faster for ETH than for BTC, indicating a stronger narrative that’s focused on the launch of its ETF.
Bybit Futures Swap Open Interest
Bybit Futures Trading Volumes
Futures Yields Trade Lower
BYBIT BTC & ETH ANNUALIZED YIELDS — BTC yields are slightly inverted at the front end
BYBIT BTC ANNUALIZED YIELDS — Have recovered back above 8% across the term structure after the bearish move earlier in the week
BYBIT ETH ANNUALIZED YIELDS — reflect a steeper term structure than BTC’s in the aftermath of the crash earlier in the week
Perp Open Interest Tanks
The crypto-wide spot sell-off coincided with the largest single-day trade volume in perpetual swaps over the past month as traders rushed to cover exposure. The corresponding fall in open interest indicates that the much of the trade volume can be explained by long position holders closing out long positions in the perpetual swap contract. The larger trade volume activity in ETH suggests that traders were caught in long positions in greater magnitude, possibly due to positioning ahead of a expected ETF start-of-trading date.
Bybit Perp BTC & ETH Open Interest - Open interest falls in both majors during the spot market rout as traders close positions
Bybit Perp Trading Volumes - Both BTC and ETH see a spike in trade volumes, but ETH outperforms its recent history by more
Volatility (Finally) Delivers
The sharp sell-off in Spot prices at the beginning of the week and subsequent recovery means that the volatility realized by Spot moves has been higher than implied volatility expectations.
As a result, we see a sharp divergence in the comparison charts below for both BTC and ETH. The difference in each token’s realized volatility matches the difference in their implied volatility: ETH trades with an implied volatility premium that has so far been justified by its larger moves in comparison with BTC.
BYBIT BTC IMPLIED AND REALIZED VOLATILITY — delivered far exceeds implied at a 30D tenor
BYBIT ETH IMPLIED AND REALIZED VOLATILITY — delivered far exceeds implied at a 30D tenor
BTC Options
Options markets have had a relatively tame response to the most recent sell-off, with volatility levels rising at the front end to meet longer-dated levels. They’ve failed to meaningfully invert the term structure as we’ve seen them do in previous Spot price crashes. However, BTC’s volatility smile skewed further toward OTM puts at shorter tenors, indicating that markets are seeking protection against further downside price action.
BYBIT BTC OPTIONS VOLUMES
BYBIT BTC OPTIONS OPEN INTEREST — The open interest in calls outweighs the open interest in puts, despite a vol smile skew toward the latter
Uncertainty Ahead in a Tumultuous Summer
BYBIT BTC & ETH Volatility Term Structure — remain at similar levels to last week’s
BYBIT BTC SVI ATM IMPLIED VOLATILITY — has traded at stable levels since rising at the end of June 2024
BYBIT BTC 25-Delta Risk Reversal — we see a stark divergence in sentiment between short and long tenors, as near-dated volatility smiles skew further toward OTM puts
ETH Options
The open interest in ETH calls is notably higher than puts following the June 28, 2024 expiration date. This corresponds with a high trade volume in calls that began around the beginning of the month, and has continued until today. It’s reflected in the more bullish skew toward OTM calls, which is in stark contrast to the bearish positioning seen in BTC’s markets.
ETH retains its volatility premium above BTC options, as all eyes turn to the launch announcement of several U.S. Spot ETFs.