Trump Said 'No' When Asked Whether He Would Resume Strikes on Iran After the US Midterm Elections

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In Today's Note

• BTC fell close to 2% over the past 24 hours to a low of $76,250, coinciding with a further 3.4% drop in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and a near-9% fall in Oracle after it announced plans to raise $20B, while Brent crude fell close to 10% to $105 a barrel.
• Mercado Bitcoin, Brazil's largest crypto exchange, suffered a $46.3M security breach, while Binance said it has replenished about 95% of the assets stolen in its hack and completed a new proof-of-reserves verification.

Market Snapshot: Overnight Moves

Macro & Markets

• Crypto prices spent most of yesterday chopping lower and extending Monday’s declines in Asian morning hours today.
• Bitcoin is down close to 2% in the last 24 hours, falling from an intraday high of $78,500 on Monday to a low of $76,250 earlier today.
• That selloff spread to the majority of the altcoin market with Zcash bearing the brunt of losses, as its native ZEC tumbled close to 10% to trade around $1,145.
• ETH is down 1.2% over the same period, while BNB, SOL and HYPE are all down more than 2%.
• Amongst the top 10 crypto assets by market-cap, only XRP and TRON are in the green, up 0.2% and 2.0% respectively.

• The risk-off moves in the crypto market coincided with a continued selloff in large chipmakers and AI-related equities which weighed negatively on benchmark stock indices.
• The pessimism in chipmakers even outweighed positive hopes for US-Iran diplomacy and the sharp decline in oil prices.
• While most firms in the S&P 500 traded higher, the index ended Monday’s session down 0.51% due to weakness in technology-related shares.
• The Nasdaq-100 closed the day down 1.39%, meaning the index closed in a technical correction, its shares down more than 10% from their last peak in October.
• Both gauges had traded higher earlier in the day but failed to maintain those gains and ended the day in the red.

• The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index declined 3.4%, adding to Friday’s 7.2% plunge.
• Meanwhile, shares of Nvidia and Meta Platforms both fell more than 1% and shares of Oracle fell close to 9% after the company said it plans to sell $10B in common stock as and $10B in corporate bonds to further finance its AI buildout.

• The biggest moves yesterday however took place in oil markets. President of Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian, said that his government had been granted more authority by the country’s supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, to pursue peace talks with the US.
• Official Iranian news sources cited Pezeshkian as saying, “We are striving to resolve the issue through dialogue, and, in this regard, the supreme leader has also granted certain powers to the government”.
• Markets took that messaging as renewed signs of diplomacy between Tehran and Washington, which was then supported by comments from President Trump.

• Speaking to reporters in Washington, Trump said, “They want to make a deal, and that could happen”.
• He added that oil prices had fallen because “it looks like that’s coming together very nicely” and “people found out about it.”
• A reporter then asked Trump whether he would resume military strikes on Iran after today’s midterm elections to which Trump mouthed “No”.
• As such, Brent crude oil, the global benchmark for oil, fell close to 10% and is currently trading at $105 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate fell back below $100 a barrel.

DeFi / Web3 / Altcoins / Crypto

• Binance, the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, has completed a new proof-of-reserves verification following the record $6.3B hack, allowing customers to independently confirm that holdings across 10 cryptocurrencies, including BTC, ETH, USDT and BNB, are backed 1:1.
• The exchange said it had replenished approximately 95% of the stolen assets using company funds, with the remaining 5% consisting of less-liquid tokens that it is still acquiring.
• Binance also plans another reserves snapshot and a phased reopening of withdrawals across additional blockchains, while its reported 24-hour net outflows have declined to $3.29B from a peak of approximately $7B.

• The FBI and blockchain analytics firms Chainalysis, Elliptic and TRM Labs attributed the attack to North Korean hackers, specifically the TraderTraitor group, which has also been linked to the $1.5B Bybit hack.
• However, Kim Yo-jong, sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and a senior government official, rejected the FBI's accusations, denying North Korean involvement in the Binance breach.

• Investigators found that the attackers exploited Binance's wallet-signing infrastructure, using Ethereum's EIP-7702 functionality and 50 pre-signed authorizations to redirect funds from compromised hot wallets.
• Onchain analyst SomaXBT reported that the hackers laundered approximately $242M of the stolen assets through Tron, including transfers involving cross-chain services Relay, THORChain, Chainflip and Symbiosis.

• Mercado Bitcoin, Brazil's largest cryptocurrency exchange, suffered a security breach involving approximately $46.3M in crypto assets, prompting the temporary suspension of deposits and withdrawals while the incident is investigated.
• Onchain analysis showed that the attacker was draining funds from older deposit addresses and selling memecoins and other altcoins, although the exact method used to gain access remains unclear.
• Tether froze more than 4.5M USDT linked to the attack, while Mercado Bitcoin published the destination wallet addresses to assist recovery efforts and stated that customer funds and personal data were unaffected.

• Bitmine Immersion Technologies, an Ethereum treasury company, acquired 8,573 ETH during the week ending November 1, 2026, increasing its holdings to 6,060,506 ETH (4.9% of total supply), worth $13.7B at $2,261 per ETH.
• The company has staked 5,227,037 ETH ($11.8B, or 86% of its holdings), generating projected annualized revenue of $358M, potentially rising to $415M if fully staked, while reporting $14.5B in total assets, including 216 BTC, $180M in Beast Industries, $82M in Eightco Holdings and $498M in cash and securities as of November 1.
• Chairman Tom Lee highlighted Ethereum's relatively modest 4% decline following the $6.3B Binance hack, compared with an 8% initial drop and 20% weekly decline following the $1.5B Bybit hack in February 2025.

• Strategy, the world's largest corporate Bitcoin holder, purchased another 811 BTC for $65.5M between October 26 and November 1, 2026, at an average price of $80,846 per BTC, bringing its treasury to 849,327 BTC, worth $65.9B, acquired for $64.1B at an average cost of $75,451 and representing over 4% of Bitcoin's maximum supply.
• The company sold 1,178,552 MSTR shares for approximately $164M, leaving $18.62B available under its equity offering program, while repurchasing nearly 2.1M STRC preferred shares for $208.2M and paying $43.4M in dividends, with its USD Reserve and USD Cash balances standing at $4.79B and $132.7M, respectively, as of November 1.
• Strategy also reported $19.5B in Q3 net income, up from $2.79B a year earlier, including a $20.9B gain on its Bitcoin holdings, while Executive Chairman Michael Saylor signaled the latest purchase by posting, "We found room for even more orange."

• Strive, a Bitcoin treasury company, purchased another 124 BTC for approximately $10M between October 24 and 30, 2026, increasing its holdings to 43,124 BTC.
• The company ranks fourth among public Bitcoin holders, behind Strategy (849,327 BTC), Metaplanet (44,000 BTC) and Twenty One (43,514 BTC).
• As of October 30, Strive held $490.4M in cash and cash equivalents and 505,000 shares of Strategy's STRC preferred stock valued at $50.1M, alongside its Bitcoin treasury.

This Week's Calendar

Charts of the Day

Figure 1. Block Scholes BTC Risk-Appetite Index (white, left-hand axis) and BTC spot price (orange, right-hand axis). Source: Deribit, Block Scholes.

Figure 2. Block Scholes ETH Risk-Appetite Index (white, left-hand axis) and ETH spot price (purple, right-hand axis). Source: Deribit, Block Scholes.

Figure 3. BTC at-the-money implied volatility across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes.

Figure 4. ETH at-the-money implied volatility across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes.

Figure 5. BTC 25-delta put-call skew ratio across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes.

Figure 6. ETH 25-delta put-call skew ratio across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes.