The Nasdaq-100 Briefly Entered Its Third Technical Correction of 2026, the Most in a Year Since 2022

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In Today's Note

• The S&P 500 fell 1.8% on Friday to below its 100-day moving average, with Coinbase -10.62% and Strategy -7.8%, while spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $643.3M of net outflows, their largest since June 25, and BTC has steadied near $78K with ETH +0.9% to $2,288 over the past 24 hours.
• President Trump said his administration is investigating the $6.3B Binance hack, which Chainalysis, Elliptic and TRM Labs have linked to North Korean hackers, while Chainalysis separately disclosed an AI-assisted breach of customer data and hackers hijacked 15 DeFi website domains registered through Name.com.

Market Snapshot: Overnight Moves

Macro & Markets

• Crypto asset prices recovered modestly over the weekend after risk sentiment was knocked lower by Binance’s $6.3B hack, the largest of its kind in crypto history.
• Following Binance’s announcement of the incident, BTC sank to $76,100 on Friday, marking its lowest level since mid-September, though price quickly recovered back above $78,000 within a few hours.
• The broader crypto market had however already been trading lower on the day amidst a selloff in US equities and tech stocks.

• Disappointing earnings reports from some of the biggest tech and AI-buildout firms, including Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Intel Corp. and ServiceNow Inc. all dragged sentiment on Wall Street lower.
• The Nasdaq-100 fell as much as 4.5% on Friday, briefly crossing a point that marked its third “technical correction” so far this year, before paring some of those losses to end the day down 3.5%.
• The two technical corrections earlier in the year occurred following the outbreak of the Iran war and the selloff in semiconductor stocks back in the summer.
• The last time the Nasdaq-100 index had entered three or more technical corrections in a single year was during the Fed’s interest rate hiking regime of 2022.
• At the same time, the S&P 500 fell 1.8%, falling below its 100-day moving average.

• Crypto-related equities were also hit hard amidst the tech and equities selloff. Strategy Inc. fell more than 7.8% while Coinbase Global Inc fell 10.62%, its largest single-day drop since February 5, 2026, when BTC fell below $68,000 for the first time since October 2024.
• Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their largest daily net outflow (-$643.3M) on Friday since June 25, earlier this year, a potential sign of the weakness in institutional sentiment following the Binance incident.
• Meanwhile, spot Ethereum ETFs saw $155.9M in net outflows, their largest since Oct. 7.

• In crypto options markets, both BTC and ETH’s implied volatility term structures are now mostly flat, after the spike in short-dated vol at the end of last week inverted both assets’ term structures.
• Demand for downside protection remains strong, though has eased from its extremely bearish levels on Friday. ETH’s 7-day 25-delta put premium is back at its pre-hack levels having blown out from -6.1 to -14.7 vol points to its steepest level since late June.
• BTC's 25-delta put-call skew widened from -2.6 to -8.3 vol points at its peak and is currently around -3.7 vol points.

DeFi / Web3 / Altcoins / Crypto

• US President Donald Trump said his administration was investigating the $6.3B Binance hack, which Chainalysis, Elliptic and TRM Labs have linked to North Korean hackers.
• CFTC Chair Michael Selig and crypto industry advocates called for stronger federal oversight of offshore exchanges, including cybersecurity standards and protections for customer assets.

• Binance's initial investigation identified a compromised DevOps engineer's laptop that enabled unauthorized access to a service container, while onchain researchers found evidence of compromised wallet-signing infrastructure across multiple blockchains.
• On Ethereum, attackers exploited EIP-7702 to install a malicious wallet-sweeping contract using 50 pre-signed authorizations, allowing them to drain Binance hot wallets and potentially intercept new deposits without directly stealing private keys.
• The hackers then used automated transfers, decentralized exchanges and DeFi lending protocols to launder stolen assets, including depositing $59.9M in USDT into Aave to borrow 19,762 ETH, helping move funds into assets that stablecoin issuers cannot freeze.

• Binance has committed $6.34B of company funds and reserves to cover customer losses, including approximately $5B in affected tokens and another $1.3B being acquired, while industry partners reportedly froze roughly $3B in stolen assets and the exchange worked to restore withdrawals.

• Chainalysis, a blockchain analytics company, disclosed a security breach involving an attacker using AI-assisted techniques, who accessed customer information including user IDs, names, email addresses and organizational roles.
• The company found no evidence that investigation records, transaction data, passwords, authentication secrets or session tokens were compromised, although it has not disclosed how the attacker gained access or how many customers were affected.
• Chainalysis said the breach was unrelated to the separate $6.3B Binance hack, which it is investigating after identifying automated money laundering involving repeated wallet transfers and DeFi lending protocols on Tron designed to evade stablecoin freezes.

• Hackers hijacked 15 DeFi-related website domains registered through Name.com, including Flap, Kintsu and Origami Finance, redirecting visitors to malicious websites that security firm Blockaid identified as using the Step Drainer wallet-theft toolkit.
• The attack manipulated website domain settings (DNS) to trick users into approving malicious wallet transactions, allowing attackers to steal crypto assets without compromising the projects' underlying smart contracts.
• Approximately $138,000 in stolen assets was traced across Ethereum-compatible networks, excluding potential losses on Solana and Aptos, while Name.com confirmed the unauthorized domain redirects had been reversed and said it was investigating the incident.

This Week's Calendar

Charts of the Day

Figure 1. Block Scholes BTC Risk-Appetite Index (white, left-hand axis) and BTC spot price (orange, right-hand axis). Source: Deribit, Block Scholes.

Figure 2. Block Scholes ETH Risk-Appetite Index (white, left-hand axis) and ETH spot price (purple, right-hand axis). Source: Deribit, Block Scholes.

Figure 3. BTC at-the-money implied volatility across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes.

Figure 4. ETH at-the-money implied volatility across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes.

Figure 5. BTC 25-delta put-call skew ratio across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes.

Figure 6. ETH 25-delta put-call skew ratio across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes.