Intercontinental Exchange Is Investing in trade[XYZ] to Build a US Venue for 24/7 Perpetual Futures

In Today's Note

• The Fed held rates at 3.75%-4.00%, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissenting in favour of a further hike, while US Q3 GDP grew 3.4%, above the 3.2% consensus, and BTC slipped back to around $80.1K.
• Blockchain.com launched TRX options in its consumer app, while Coinbase added Ripple's RLUSD stablecoin across its retail app, Coinbase Exchange and Coinbase Prime.

Market Snapshot: Overnight Moves

Macro & Markets

• The Federal Reserve held interest rates at 3.75-4.00% on Wednesday, pausing after September's hike. Two members, Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack, dissented in favour of a further 25bp increase.
• The FOMC’s published statement upgraded the Committee's description of growth from "solid" to "strong" and added that it "will deliver price stability". Fed Chair Kevin Warsh opened his press conference by warning that "inflation is too high. Energy and related prices have moved higher again in recent weeks", adding that Q3 growth is "likely running above 3 percent."
• In keeping with his stance against forward guidance, Warsh declined to signal the path for December, saying "I don't believe in forward guidance, absent exigent circumstances, absent a crisis." Markets nonetheless continue to price a December hike at above 80% according to CME FedWatch.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent backed the decision, telling CNBC that "I think Chair Warsh is off to a great start" and that "the bond market has done a lot of tightening for us."
• The decision triggered a bear steepening of the Treasury curve. The 2-year yield fell 3bps to 4.67% while the 10-year rose 6bps to 5.05%, back above 5%, and the 30-year climbed 7bps to 5.37%, widening the 2s10s spread to 38bps from 29bps.

• Elsewhere, the Bank of Canada raised rates by 25bps to 2.50%, its first hike since July 2023. The ECB is expected to hold rates at 2.50% when it announces its decision at 13:15 UTC today, while the Bank of Japan is due to announce its decision tomorrow.
• US Q3 GDP growth came in at 3.4%, above consensus expectations of 3.2%, while September PCE inflation came in at 3.6% YoY and core PCE at 3.1%, both in line with consensus.

• BTC briefly rallied after the FOMC decision, rising from $80.8K at 18:00 UTC to $81.5K by 20:00 UTC, before reversing in Asian trading hours alongside Nasdaq futures. It fell 1.3% between 01:00 and 02:00 UTC to back below $80K, touching an hourly low of $79.8K at 04:00 UTC, and is trading at $80.1K this morning.
• The move lower came despite steady institutional demand yesterday. US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $137.3M on Wednesday, their third consecutive day of inflows, taking the week-to-date total to $423.7M.
• Demand for ETH exposure has continued to weaken. US spot Ether ETFs recorded a third consecutive day of outflows on Wednesday (-$21.4M), taking this week's outflows to $170.2M and October's to close to $1.3B.
• BTC's options market priced a sizeable event premium into the meeting. 7-day at-the-money implied vol rose from 32.2% on Oct. 24 to 38.0% on Oct. 27, its highest level since mid-September, lifting short-dated vol above 30-day vol for the first time since Sep. 22.
• That inversion has persisted after the decision, with 7-day vol only easing to 35.4% against 30-day vol of 34.8%, as the 7-day tenor now spans the Nov. 3 US midterm elections. BTC's 30-day 25-delta put premium has meanwhile narrowed from -4.6 vol points on Oct. 25 to -2.8.

• US equities ended Wednesday modestly higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.28% and the Nasdaq Composite 0.27%. Chipmakers extended their rebound, with Micron up 5.9% and Oracle climbing around 11% following its investor day.
• Nasdaq-100 futures are trading 1.2% lower this morning and S&P 500 futures are down 0.4%, while Samsung fell 4.1% in Seoul after its chip operating profit missed estimates.
• Brent crude is trading 1.2% lower at $113.94 this morning, after rising on Wednesday on an unconfirmed Houthi claim of a missile strike on Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura terminal and a surprise 1.9M-barrel draw in US crude inventories.
• Gold has fallen 1.0% to $4,028 this morning, while the DXY dollar index is steady at 102.2.

• Strategy shareholders have approved the “Daily Dividends” amendment, with preliminary results showing 99.3% of votes cast in favor.
• The amendment allows Strategy’s preferred securities, STRF, STRC, STRK and STRD, to accrue dividends on a daily basis rather than under the previous accrual structure.
• The change does not alter the stated dividend rates themselves; it changes how dividend entitlement accumulates over time.
• For holders, that means dividends can accrue for each calendar day a security is held, which can make settlement around purchases, sales and redemptions more precise.
• The amendment applies to Strategy’s preferred stock products, not MSTR common shares.
• Strategy said the vote received overwhelming shareholder support, based on the preliminary tally.

DeFi / Web3 / Altcoins / Crypto

• Blockchain.com has launched TRX options in its consumer app for eligible users in supported jurisdictions.
• The product gives users derivatives-based exposure to TRX without requiring them to buy the token directly.
• Access is provided through the Blockchain.com Trading Account and remains subject to local regulatory requirements.
• The launch adds TRX to Blockchain.com’s options offering and gives users another way to trade or hedge exposure to the TRON ecosystem.
• According to the announcement, TRON has more than 411M accounts, over 15B transactions and cumulative transfer volume above $30T.
• More than $94B of circulating USDT is issued on TRON.
• The launch follows other recent TRX-related market infrastructure developments, including the Canary Staked TRX ETF, TRX staking and custody through Anchorage Digital, and tokenized fund activity on TRON.
• The announcement was sponsored, so network-scale and adoption claims are based on figures provided by TRON.

• Coinbase has added Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin across its retail app, Coinbase Exchange and Coinbase Prime.
• Customers can convert USD and other supported dollar-denominated stablecoins into RLUSD at a 1:1 rate.
• Deposits and withdrawals are supported on the XRP Ledger, Ethereum and Base.
• Coinbase also plans to add RLUSD support for Global Exchange customers, including use of the stablecoin as collateral.
• The expansion follows final OCC approval for Ripple to launch a national trust bank, bringing RLUSD under federal oversight.

• trade[XYZ] and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, plan to develop a U.S. market for 24/7 perpetual futures built on Hyperliquid infrastructure, subject to CFTC approval.
• The proposed platform would use dedicated U.S. exchange and clearing infrastructure and is expected to offer perpetual contracts across equities, indices, commodities, FX and crypto.
• Access would be provided through participating brokers and trading platforms, with details on products, eligibility and timing still pending regulatory approval.
• trade[XYZ] said its existing Hyperliquid markets have generated more than $650B in trading volume in just over a year.
• Those markets provide continuous price discovery for traditional and digital assets outside standard market hours.
• ICE is making a strategic investment in trade[XYZ] as part of the partnership.
• trade[XYZ] said the planned U.S. venue will be developed alongside its existing HIP-3 markets, which will continue operating and expanding separately.

This Week's Calendar

Charts of the Day

Figure 1. Block Scholes BTC Risk-Appetite Index (white, left-hand axis) and BTC spot price (orange, right-hand axis). Source: Deribit, Block Scholes.

Figure 2. Block Scholes ETH Risk-Appetite Index (white, left-hand axis) and ETH spot price (purple, right-hand axis). Source: Deribit, Block Scholes.

Figure 3. BTC at-the-money implied volatility across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes.

Figure 4. ETH at-the-money implied volatility across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes.

Figure 5. BTC 25-delta put-call skew ratio across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes.

Figure 6. ETH 25-delta put-call skew ratio across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes.

Block Scholes is an FCA-regulated institutional crypto derivatives analytics platform. Live data, IV surfaces, and backtesting available via blockscholes.com.

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