Bitcoin's Short-Dated Implied Volatility Is the Lowest Since 2023

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In Today's Note

• BTC seven-day realised volatility fell to 19%, its lowest since September 2025, while seven-day implied volatility traded around 23%, the lowest since 2023. The summer lull that typically runs from June to September is well established.
• Trump ruled out extending the June memorandum with Iran, which expired on Monday, and warned Oman against interfering in the Hormuz talks. Brent rose above $90 and the 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.31%, its highest since 2007, pulling long-end yields higher worldwide.

Market Snapshot: Overnight Moves

Macro & Markets

• Equities and bonds traded lower on Monday after President Trump showed no sign of wanting to make a peace deal to end the US-Iran war.
• The S&P 500 fell further away from its Thursday all-time high, declining 0.52%, alongside a 0.18% drop in the Nasdaq-100.
• Brent crude jumped above $90 per barrel while the 30-year yield on US treasuries hit their highest level since 2007.
• Crypto and chipmakers outperformed however, BTC rose from $62K to over $64K while the Philadelphia Semiconductor sector index closed 1.64% higher.

• BTC is currently trading in a significantly low volatility environment, in line with the typical summer volatility lull we’ve described and highlighted in the past. At 19%, 7-day realised volatility is currently at its lowest level since September 2025 (the summer vol lull period typically being June-September). In options markets, forward looking short-dated volatility traded at its lowest since 2023 last week as 7-day IV currently trades around 23%.

• The possibility of prolonged peace in the Middle East took a major hit on Monday when President Trump was asked whether he is looking to extend the memorandum of understanding signed in June, which technically expired on Monday, and responded “No”.
• That truce signed back in June was designed to open the doors for a permanent peace deal to be reached in the 60 day window that followed it, instead, both sides shortly began to engage in tit-for-tat military strikes resulting in a defunct agreement. More recently, the US has announced plans to apply increasing pressure on Iran’s finances.

• President Trump also gave a warning to Oman which is currently in negotiations with Iran on a potential deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz at least partially.
• Iran has said a “shipping map” has been finalised as part of that agreement, though talks are still ongoing regarding who will govern the waterway.
• In a phone interview with Fox News, Trump warned that if “Oman gets in the way we’ll bomb the s, , out of them”, without providing any further details.
• The escalating US-Iran tensions come amidst a broader flare-up in the region. Over the weekend, Israel’s military claimed it killed a senior Hezbollah commander in southern Lebanon, while also striking Iran-backed Hamas targets in Gaza. Meanwhile, Yemen-based Houthis have attacked ships passing through the Red Sea.

• The yield on 30-year US Treasuries hit the highest in almost two decades, rising 6bps to 5.31% on Monday. That surpassed a high from last month with the yield now at its highest since 2007.
• Long-end bond yields across the globe followed the US 30-year yield higher: 30-year Canadian bond yields rose to their highest since 2010, while in Europe, German rates reached levels last seen in 2011.

DeFi / Web3 / Altcoins / Crypto3

• Kraken has launched U.S. stock trading for eligible customers, meaning those individual European Economic Area clients who pass Kraken’s onboarding checks for equities, across the EEA.
• The service allows users to trade more than 7,000 U.S.-listed stocks alongside over 600 crypto assets and more than 700 tokenized stocks, known as xStocks.
• Kraken says it is the only crypto-native platform in the EEA offering both traditional U.S. shares and tokenized versions within the same regulated account.
• The service is available through Kraken Pro on desktop and mobile, as well as the main Kraken app.
• Kraken said it will not charge trading commissions, subject to applicable terms.
• The offering is provided by Payward Europe Digital Solutions, a Cyprus investment firm authorized under MiFID II.

• Ripple has partnered with South Korea’s Jeonbuk Bank to deploy Ripple Payments for cross-border remittances.
• The partnership will enable 24/7 settlement, with transactions expected to complete within seconds to minutes.
• Jeonbuk Bank will use Ripple Payments to provide faster remittance services to clients including import-export companies, IT startups and online content creators.
• The agreement makes Jeonbuk Bank the first regional bank in South Korea to deploy Ripple Payments.

• Tokenized equities have increased their share of the real-world asset market to 15%, roughly three times the level at the start of 2026.
• The total market capitalization of tokenized stocks is now around $2.8B.
• RWA transfer volume, meaning the total value of tokenized real-world assets moved onchain, rose sharply to $20B in August from $9B in the previous month.
• Ondo Finance, Binance’s bStocks and xStocks dominate the sector, accounting for a combined 77% of the tokenized equity market.
• Ondo leads with about $957M, followed by bStocks at $622M and xStocks at $600M.
• These platforms mainly use synthetic representations designed to track the performance of underlying stocks.
• Unlike conventional shares, synthetic tokenized stocks generally do not provide the same ownership, voting rights or shareholder protections.
• Other firms, including Securitize and Superstate, are working on bringing actual equity shares onchain with rights closer to traditional stock ownership.

• Upbit and Bithumb, South Korea’s two largest crypto exchanges, reported sharp declines in revenue and profit for H1 2026 as local trading activity weakened.
• Upbit parent Dunamu’s revenue fell 49.1% year-over-year to $289M.
• Its operating profit dropped 79.7% to $79M, while net profit declined 74.1% to $77M.
• Bithumb’s revenue fell 48.7% to $120M.
• Its operating profit dropped 83.4% to $11M, while the company swung to a $77M net loss.
• Trading volume across South Korea’s five fully licensed crypto exchanges fell 49.5% year-over-year in Q2 to $146.43B.

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