Nasdaq-100 Hits Record as Treasury Yields Climb to Highest Since 2002

Block Scholes is an FCA-regulated institutional crypto derivatives analytics platform. Live data, IV surfaces, and backtesting available via blockscholes.com.

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In Today's Note

• The S&P 500 rose 0.66% and the Nasdaq-100 hit another record on AI-led tech gains, even as 10Y and 30Y Treasury yields reached their highest levels since 2002, while BTC held near $86.0K (-0.2%) and ETH near $2,716 (-0.2%) as spot BTC ETFs saw $89.8M of outflows.
• The CFTC proposed rules for leveraged retail crypto trading on federally registered exchanges, OKXICE notified the SEC of plans for an onchain tokenized US stock venue, and Strategy, Bitmine, Metaplanet and Strive reported new treasury purchases.

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Market Snapshot: Overnight Moves

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Macro & Markets

• Risk assets continued to march higher in trading yesterday with BTC once again reaching resistance at $87K.
• The S&P 500 rose 0.66% within striking distance of an all-time high, while a rally in AI-linked Big Tech pushed the Nasdaq-100 to another record, overshadowing concerns from higher bond yields. 
• SpaceX jumped more than 7%, while hyperscalers Meta Platforms and Microsoft both rose close to 2% and chipmaker Nvidia rallied more than 2%. 

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• US Treasuries continued their months-long slide on Monday as longer-dated yields rose to fresh multi-decade highs, as the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose 7bps briefly to 5.34% before falling back down, while the 30-year yield rose around 9bps by the middle of the day before also falling. Both reached their highest levels since 2002.

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• Despite BTC’s move higher to $87K, spot ETFs have cooled in their inflows, selling $89.8M worth of Bitcoin in trading yesterday. Positioning in options markets has also cooled from the late September highs when BTC initially broke $80K. Then, short-dated 25-delta put-call skew traded around 6% for BTC and 8% for ETH versus the current 1% and 3%, respectively.

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• Traders also digested macroeconomic data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). 
• According to the ISM’s most recent report, the US service sector expanded at a slightly slower pace in September with the services index falling 0.5 points to 54.9%, but still above 50 which indicates an expansion. 
• The ISM's measure of prices paid for materials and services rose to 74%, the highest since July 2022. That measure had reached a nearly one-year low in February, just before the US-Iran war sent energy costs soaring higher.
• Markets will focus their attention tomorrow on the meeting minutes from the Fed’s September decision where it raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point for the first time since 2023. 

Defi/ Crypto

• The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has begun a rulemaking process for leveraged and margined retail crypto trading, proposing Regulation Crypto Asset Transactions (CTX) and Regulation Crypto Asset Markets (CAM) to create crypto-specific requirements and a new “crypto asset market” category for federally registered exchanges.
• Under the proposed framework, registered crypto exchanges could offer U.S. retail customers margined, leveraged or financed crypto trading under one federal regulatory regime, providing an alternative to exchanges operating under state licensing frameworks.
• Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Michael Selig said on Oct. 5 that the agency cannot require crypto assets to trade on federally registered exchanges without congressional action, meaning the framework would provide an optional federal pathway rather than make federal registration mandatory for all crypto trading platforms.

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• OKXICE, a joint venture between crypto exchange OKX and Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, has notified the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that it plans to launch a permissioned onchain venue for trading tokenized U.S. stocks under the regulator’s innovation exemption.
• The platform is designed to run on X Layer, OKX’s Ethereum-compatible Layer 2 blockchain, and initially cover more than 60 U.S.-listed companies, including Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Tesla, JPMorgan Chase, Coinbase, Robinhood, Circle and SpaceX, with issuers given 30 days to opt out.
• The structure is intended to give investors tokenized shares with real ownership and shareholder rights, rather than synthetic price exposure, while allowing trading to take place on blockchain infrastructure under the exemption.

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• Corporate crypto treasury activity continued this week, with Strategy, Bitmine, Metaplanet and Strive reporting new purchases, changes to their holdings and updated treasury strategies.
• Strategy, the world’s largest corporate bitcoin holder, bought 334 BTC for about $28.7M at an average price of $85,838.80 between Sept. 28 and Oct. 4, bringing its total holdings to 848,000 BTC worth roughly $73B.
• The purchase was funded with $15.7M from sales of Strategy’s Class A common stock, MSTR, and about $13M from its U.S. dollar cash holdings; Strategy’s bitcoin position was acquired for around $64B at an average price of $75,440.70 per BTC, after Executive Chairman Michael Saylor previewed the update with the comment “More orange than ever.”

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• Bitmine Immersion Technologies, an Ethereum treasury company chaired by Tom Lee, bought another 15,112 ETH, increasing its holdings to 6,016,414 ETH worth about $16.4B, or 4.9% of Ethereum’s 122.1M token supply.
• Bitmine has bought ETH every week since launching its treasury strategy on June 30, 2025, with 5,067,309 ETH, or 84% of its holdings, currently staked; Lee said ETH outperformed the S&P 500 by 6,832 basis points in the third quarter, calling the result notable despite tighter financial conditions.

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• Metaplanet, a Japanese bitcoin treasury company, disclosed that it sold 10,000 BTC for ¥124.7B ($790M) during the third quarter and later bought 11,000 BTC for ¥149.9B ($950M), ending the quarter with 44,000 BTC after a net increase of 1,000 BTC.
• The company said the transactions were carried out to “demonstrate liquidity,” showing lenders and ratings agencies that it can convert bitcoin into cash when needed as it pursues a credit rating and broader financing options.
• The new disclosure also outlined a revised allocation policy under which 85% to 90% of assets would remain in bitcoin, while 10% to 15% would be directed to income-generating investments, acquisitions and its asset-management business.

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• Strive, a publicly traded bitcoin treasury company, bought 2,000 BTC for about $169M at an average price of $84,422, its largest purchase since June, increasing total holdings to 29,462 BTC worth roughly $2.55B.
• The purchase was funded mainly through sales of Strive’s SATA perpetual preferred stock, which provided 61.5% of the capital raised, and $56.7M from warrant exercises; Strive now sits 6,115 BTC behind MARA and 14,538 BTC behind Metaplanet, which moved into second place with 44,000 BTC.

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This Week's Calendar

Charts of the Day

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Figure 1. Block Scholes BTC Risk-Appetite Index (white, left-hand axis) and BTC spot price (orange, right-hand axis).

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Figure 2. Block Scholes ETH Risk-Appetite Index (white, left-hand axis) and ETH spot price (purple, right-hand axis).

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Figure 3. BTC at-the-money implied volatility across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes.

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Figure 4. ETH at-the-money implied volatility across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes.

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Figure 5. BTC 25-delta put-call skew ratio across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes.

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Figure 6. ETH 25-delta put-call skew ratio across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes.

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