This week kicked off with a selloff in global bond markets, in part driven by inflationary concerns from the ongoing US-Iran conflict. Government bond yields at multi-decade highs in turn weighed on crypto risk sentiment. BTC briefly fell to $76K, a two-week low, while ETH tested the $2,100 support level. Despite the weakening macro backdrop, BTC has traded with volatility levels close to year-to-date lows, something we see reflected in options positioning too.
After a double-digit rally in April, BTC has continued its ascent, even briefly trading past $82K — its highest level since end-January. As such, Block Scholes’ Risk Appetite Indices for both BTC and ETH have surged past a value of 1 and into a region that has typically marked further bullish price momentum. Since 2021, BTC has rallied by more than 12% on a monthly basis on 17 occasions, 9 of which were followed by a second month of higher spot prices. However, despite a backdrop of easing geopolitical tensions and a major crypto bill in the "red zone", derivatives markets are sending mixed signals.