Block Scholes has regulatory permissions to conduct specific regulated activities in the UK. Learn more →

Back to Research

Last Updated:

March 19, 2024

•

5 min read

Crypto Derivatives 19th March 24

We previously observed increased demand for downside protection, indicating that the market may be positioning itself against any potential retrace. Following a rally to all-time high levels, the market has pulled back. Short-dated tenors show a significant decrease in spot yields for BTC and ETH, signalling a shift in near-term market sentiment. Funding rates, although positive, have cooled from their monthly highs, indicating reduced demand for leveraged long exposure. Fluctuations in BTC and ETH's ATM vols suggest ongoing market uncertainty. Additionally, the 25-Delta Risk Reversal has shifted towards puts at short-dated tenors, indicating a bearish sentiment that is more pronounced in ETH than BTC.

Futures Implied Yield, 1-Month Tenor

ATM Implied Volatility, 1-Month Tenor

Futures

BTC Annualised Yields

A significant fall in spot yields at short-dated tenors indicates a shift in market sentiment in the near term.

ETH Annualised Yields

A similar fall in yields can be observed in ETH, though not as sharp as the fall in BTC.

Perpetual Swap Funding Rates

BTC Funding Rate

Although positive, funding has cooled since reaching monthly highs, indicating less demand for leveraged long exposure.

ETH Funding Rate

Contrary to last week, funding in USDC-margined contracts are positive, whilst token-margined contracts remain low.

BTC Options

BTC SABR ATM Implied Volatility

Has fluctuated between 65% and 80%, indicating a period of market uncertainty, paving the way for a shift in market sentiment.

BTC 25-Delta Risk Reversal

Has shifted strongly towards puts at short-dated tenors, indicating increased bearish sentiment in the near-term.

ETH Options

ETH SABR ATM Implied Volatility

Sees similar, but wider fluctuations compared to BTC as spot prices have fallen since touching above $4k.

ETH 25-Delta Risk Reversal

Reflects far more bearish positioning when compared with BTC’s smiles at each tenor.

Volatility Surface

BTC Implied Vol Surface

Compared to last week, vol has fallen. Furthermore, back end vols outperform the front end, resulting in a disinversion of the term structure.

ETH Implied Vol Surface

Vol for OTM puts at a 1W tenor has risen significantly, indicating a strong shift towards negative put skew.

Volatility Smiles

Historical SABR Volatility Smiles

Scroll back to the top ↑

Andrew Melville

Research Analyst

Share this post

Table of contents

Get insights in your inbox—join our newsletter

Thank you! Your submission has been received!

Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.

DeFi Analytics 1st May 24

This week's edition of our DeFi Analytics report.

Crypto Derivatives 30th April 24

Leverage as indicated by perpetual swap funding rates and futures-implied yields remains much lower than the extremes we saw ahead of the flush-out at the end of March. Implied volatility levels have crashed lower for both tokens and across their term structures, led by a significant under-performance in shorter-dated tenors. Vol smiles remain intermittently skewed towards OTM puts at short tenors as the market appears to brace for further downside in the short term. ETH vols trade some 5 vols higher than BTC’s across the term structure, with both future-implied yields and vol smile skews indicating more bearish positioning than in BTCs markets, particularly in the short term.

DeFi Analytics 25th Apr 24

This week's edition of our DeFi Analytics report.

Crypto Derivatives 23rd April 24

Following a bounce in spot price at range lows, BTC and ETH currently trade at $66K and $3.2K respectively. Funding rates remain close to zero for both majors, and future-implied yields are near their lowest levels in more than a month as BTC trades in the middle of its sideways trending range. In the past week, volatility at short-dated tenor options has fallen, correcting the front-end of BTC and ETH’s previously inverted term structures. The fall in volatility was matched by a recovery in skew from OTM puts to more neutral levels at all tenors less than 3-months, indicating that investors are less concerned with buying OTM puts for downside protection.

DeFi Analytics 17th Apr 24

This week's edition of our DeFi Analytics report.

Crypto Derivatives 16th April 2024

Funding rates and future-implied yields are near their lowest levels in more than a month after the weekend’s spot selloff took prices back to the bottom end of the sideways trending range. Volatility at short tenor options rallied, causing an inversion in both BTC and ETH’s term structures at the front end, without lifting volatility levels at longer-dated expiries. The rise in volatility was matched by a strong skew towards OTM puts of volatility smiles at all tenors less than 3-months, indicating a strong switch in sentiment towards a demand for downside protection.

DeFi Analytics 11th Apr 24

This week's edition of our DeFi Analytics report.

Crypto Derivatives 9th April 2024

ETH lead another attempt by spot prices to cross above the year-long highs recorded in March. With it, we saw a return to high levels of leverage in derivatives markets: high yields implied by futures prices, high perpetual swap funding rates, and a rally in short dated at-the-money implied volatility that briefly inverted the term structure. However, the rally was shorter lived and smaller in size than that which took BTC prices to all-time highs. Furthermore, while volatility continues to trade flat across the term structure at its higher, 70-80% range, futures markets report a collapse in funding back to their longer-held trend.

DeFi Analytics 4th Apr 24

This week's edition of our DeFi Analytics report.

Crypto Derivatives 2nd April 2024

After reaching locals highs of $71k and $3.7k earlier in the week, both BTC and ETH spot prices have fallen. This pullback has resulted in a slight decrease in demand for leveraged long exposure, reinforced by the increased skew towards puts in the smiles of both majors. However, excess demand for downside protection is less extreme when compared to earlier in the month where the 25-delta risk reversal skew for BTC and ETH reached lows of -9% and -17% respectively. Rather, the bearish turn in derivatives appears to be a repeat of the leverage flush out that we have seen several times during this rally. Implied volatility has risen for both majors, and particularly in short-dated tenors which has resulted in a flattening of the volatility term structure from its previously steep shape.

DeFi Analytics 27th Mar 24

This week's edition of our DeFi Analytics report.

Crypto Derivatives 26th March 24

After a pullback earlier in the week, both BTC and ETH have bounced to $70k and $3.7k respectively. Future-implied yields have risen, whilst implied volatility for both majors remains within a tight range. Perpetual swap funding rates remain positive, but low. The term structure for BTC and ETH - which was previously inverted - has corrected, with implied volatility at short-dated tenors falling below the volatility at long-dated tenors, suggesting reduced demand for long volatility exposure at shorter tenors. Furthermore, the 25-delta put/call skew has increased for both majors, indicating that traders are less worried about buying protective puts to hedge possible impending downside.

DeFi Analytics 20th Mar 24

This week's edition of our DeFi Analytics report.

Crypto Derivatives 19th March 24

We previously observed increased demand for downside protection, indicating that the market may be positioning itself against any potential retrace. Following a rally to all-time high levels, the market has pulled back. Short-dated tenors show a significant decrease in spot yields for BTC and ETH, signalling a shift in near-term market sentiment. Funding rates, although positive, have cooled from their monthly highs, indicating reduced demand for leveraged long exposure. Fluctuations in BTC and ETH's ATM vols suggest ongoing market uncertainty. Additionally, the 25-Delta Risk Reversal has shifted towards puts at short-dated tenors, indicating a bearish sentiment that is more pronounced in ETH than BTC.

Crypto Derivatives 12th March 24

Future-implied yields and perpetual swap funding rate showcase the high demand for leveraged long exposure enjoyed by traders during the rally in spot prices to all-time high levels. We also see a slightly inverted term structure of volatility, suggesting high demand for long volatility exposure at shorter tenors. However, the breakthrough of the psychological $70K and $4K barriers has brought with it an increased demand for downside protection in 3- to 6-month tenor puts (and more prominently for ETH), indicating that the market may be positioning itself against any potential retrace below the freshly printed recorded levels.

DeFi Analytics 6th Mar 24

This week's edition of our DeFi Analytics report.

Crypto Derivatives 5th Mar 24

Weekly crypto-derivatives market analytics, spanning futures, options, and perpetuals.

DeFi Analytics 28th Feb 24

This week's edition of our DeFi Analytics report.

October 2023 Crypto Volatility Review

October has brought implied volatility back into the mid-50s once again, as strong demand for participation in any further upwards moves sees the skew of both majors volatility miles move further towards calls. Despite the strong anticipation, however, realised volatility remains very close to historical lows. This leaves the volatility ratio of both BTC and ETH options at its highest since 2019, a spread that we believe cannot be attributed entirely to ETF speculation.

Crypto Derivatives 27th Feb 24

Weekly crypto-derivatives market analytics, spanning futures, options, and perpetuals.

DeFi Analytics 21st Feb 24

This week's edition of our DeFi Analytics report.

Crypto Derivatives 20th Feb 24

Weekly crypto-derivatives market analytics, spanning futures, options, and perpetuals.

Maximal Extractable Value

The Ethereum network's pivot to a new consensus mechanism in September 2022 caused a dramatic shakeup to the reward system available to blockbuilders. Maximal extractable value, previously merely a popular side project for Proof of Work miners, has now become the most attractive reward stream for validators, and understanding its nuances is key to a profitable validator operation.

Ethereum's Gas Mechanics

The Ethereum network boasts the biggest Decentralised Finance ecosystem of any blockchain, an ecosystem supported by a network of smart contracts that allow for composable blocks of code to be executed by validators in the form of onchain transactions. The computation required by a transaction is performed by the validators (analogous to Bitcoin's miners) who create new blocks on the chain and is paid for in ETH by the sender.

THE MERGE

In mid-September 2022, Ethereum’s blockchain completed its long-awaited merge into a Proof of Stake chain, deprecating the Proof of Work system that has found consensus for the network since its inception in 2015. The Merge marks the most significant event in crypto to date, as the community has never seen such a drastic change to such a high-profile chain, and with such unpredictable consequences. It represents the culmination of many years of research and testing by both the Ethereum foundation and its community and is just one step on a long roadmap of planned upgrades.

Crypto Derivatives 13th Feb 24

Weekly crypto-derivatives market analytics, spanning futures, options, and perpetuals.

Ethereum Staking Deep Dive: Understanding Consensus Layer Rewards

Ethereum has emerged as a prominent and transformative force in the world of blockchain and decentralised finance, revolutionising the concept of digital currencies and paving the way for countless innovative applications. With its robust infrastructure and vibrant ecosystem, Ethereum continues to captivate the imagination of developers, entrepreneurs, and investors alike with an evolving ecosystem. As part of that evolution, the Ethereum Foundation has released a roadmap of planned upgrades, intended to enhance the network’s scalability, security, and sustainability. The transition from a Proof-of-Work (PoW) consensus mechanism to a Proof-of-Stake (PoS) model in the Merge was the first (and maybe most ambitious!) of these upgrades. Completed in mid-September 2022, the shift required a stunning feat of blockchain and community engineering to put an end to Ether mining and instead derive the blockchain’s security and reliability from staking. After over two and a half years since the genesis block of the Beacon Chain, and ten successful months of PoS-powered blocks post the Merge, Ether staking has grown from infancy to an established & maturing practice.

Ethereum Staking Deep Dive: Analysing Execution Layer Rewards & MEV

In this second part of our examination of Ethereum staking rewards we will perform a deep-dive analysis of execution layer rewards, describe and assess the contribution of Maximal Extractable Value (MEV) to a staker’s income, and review the drivers of MEV and its link to price volatility. We hope that you enjoy the full report, from which several key findings are outlined below.