“We’re in Negotiations Right Now”

Find out our latest reports, listed below:

• Block Scholes x Panoptic: Bridging The Onchain Convexity Gap

• Volatility Report: February 2026

• 2026 – the year of RWA perps?
  

• Bybit x Block Scholes: “2026: It's Different This Time?”

Market Snapshot: Overnight Moves

Daily Updates:

• The past 24 hours has seen BTC make a V-shaped recovery, falling from $71K to just below $69K before rebounding once more to $71K, as rapid changes in the geopolitical backdrop continue to influence price action. 
• Implied vol levels continued to decline with 7-day at-the-money IV currently below 50% for BTC and trading around 65% for ETH. Put-call skew also showed signs of a cautious recovery over the past 24 hours — though still assign a premium to OTM put options across the surface, for both assets. 

• Yesterday night the New York Times reported that the US had drafted a 15-point plan designed to bring an end to the Middle East war, which is currently in its 26th day. 
• The proposal was delivered to Iranian officials via Pakistan, though details of the plan itself remain unclear as of now, as does Iran’s response to the plan. 
• On his Truth Social platform, President Trump shared a screenshot of a social media post from Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif which stated that “Pakistan stands ready and honoured to be the host to facilitate meaningful and conclusive talks for a comprehensive settlement of the ongoing conflict”. 
• Speaking to reporters at the White House yesterday Trump also claimed that “We’re in negotiations right now” with Iran. “They’re talking to us, and they’re talking sense. It all starts with they cannot have a nuclear weapon”, Trump said. 
• He added that “Nobody knows who to talk to, but we’re actually talking to the right people, and they want to make a deal so badly, you have no idea how badly they want to make it.”

• In another sign of de-escalatory measures, Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs sent a letter to the United Nations’ International Maritime Organisation that it would begin to allow “non-hostile” ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The Ministry defined nonhostile vessels as those which “neither participate in nor support acts of aggression against Iran” or belong to the United States or Israel.
• The letter added that “the full restoration of security and sustainable stability in the strait is contingent upon the cessation of military aggression and threats.”

• Still, both sides are continuing to accompany their de-escalatory measures with separate threats that could further derail any offramp to end the conflict. 
• According to Defense Department officials, the Pentagon has ordered around 2,000 soldiers to deploy in the Middle East, while state-run IRIB News in Iran reported that the regime’s armed forces had said “The level of your internal conflicts has reached the point where you are negotiating with yourselves” and that Iran will not allow market prices for oil and energy to return to their previous levels until all threats against the country are fully removed.
• Israel has also continued to launch missiles in Iran today. 

• Oil prices dropped sharply following the recent developments towards a ceasefire, with Brent crude oil now down more than 10% over the past five days (and currently trading around $95 a barrel), while West Texas Intermediate is down more than 13% over the same period, and currently trades at $88. 
• While US equity indexes ended yesterday’s trading session lower, equity-index futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 advanced 0.8% and 1.02%.

• A new draft tied to the Clarity Act signals a tougher shift in U.S. crypto regulation, potentially banning rewards on passive stablecoin holdings and tightening incentive structures, going further than the earlier GENIUS Act which already prohibited issuers from paying interest but allowed third-party platforms to offer rewards. 
• This update has raised concerns because it could reduce the attractiveness of stablecoins, reflecting ongoing pressure from banks and policymakers worried about competition with traditional deposits. 
• As a result, Circle’s stock (CRCL) fell sharply, over 20% (24hrs) on fears that weaker incentives could slow USDC adoption, while Coinbase fell nearly 10% (24hrs) since a significant share of its revenue depends on USDC rewards.
• Under its revenue-sharing agreement with Circle, Coinbase earns a significant portion of the interest income generated from USDC reserves held on its platform, incentivising it to drive on-platform balances and usage through rewards and fee-free conversions.

• Robinhood’s Board of Directors approved a new $1.5B share repurchase program, expected to be executed over the next three years, with flexibility to adjust based on market conditions.
• This builds on its previous programs announced in 2024 and 2025, where Robinhood have repurchased more than 25M shares at an average price of around $45, totaling over $1.1B.

• Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chairman, Michael S. Selig announced the launch of the Innovation Task Force to provide clearer regulatory direction for emerging technologies in U.S. derivatives markets, as activity grows in areas like crypto and AI. 
• The initiative will initially focus on crypto assets, blockchain, artificial intelligence, and prediction markets to support responsible innovation while maintaining U.S. competitiveness. 
• Led by Michael J. Passalacqua, the task force will also coordinate with agencies including the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and its Crypto Task Force to align oversight, alongside the Innovation Advisory Committee, 

• On-chain data indicates that Bitmine purchased an additional 67,111 ETH (approximately $145M) from Kraken. 
• This follows its March 23, 2026 update reporting total ETH holdings of 4.661M tokens, with combined crypto and cash holdings of $11.0B.

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