Options Skew Returns to Neutral as Crypto Majors Rally

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In Today's Note

• 25-delta put-call skew has normalised to around neutral for both BTC and ETH, after starting July near -11% to -12%, and the majors rallied with BTC up 3.3% to $66.2K and ETH up 4.2% to $1.94K. Brent whipsawed between $86 and $91 as Trump vowed retaliation and the Houthis announced a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, before Iran signalled openness to mediated proposals.
• Trump has reportedly agreed to ethics language for the CLARITY Act, potentially clearing the bill's biggest obstacle before the Senate's August recess. Bitmine now holds 5.78M ETH, about 4.8% of circulating supply, while Strategy raised $263.5M in shares without buying bitcoin and a Washington judge temporarily blocked Kalshi's sports contracts.

Market Snapshot: Overnight Moves

Macro & Markets

• Oil prices whipsawed over the past 24 hours as traders reacted to headlines indicating both the potential for another round of peace talks, as well as continued escalations in the Middle East conflict.
• US equities continued their selloff from Friday, though declined more modestly, while BTC showed resilience to geopolitical changes and currently trades above $66K.
• Most shares in the S&P 500 ended Monday’s session lower, dragging the index down 0.19% on the day.
• Pressure on the AI-trade eased as the Philadelphia Semiconductor Sector index rose 0.60%, following last Friday’s sharp selloff which dragged the gauge of chipmakers into a bear market.
• In options markets, sentiment has steadily improved through the month of July across both BTC and ETH.
• After entering the month trading around -11-12%, 25-delta put-call skew is now hovering around neutral levels for both majors. That also coincides with a bottom in Block Scholes’ in-house Risk Appetite index in early-July.
• Brent crude oil fluctuated between between $86 per barrel and $91 per barrel over the past 24 hours after President Trump vowed on Monday that Iran "will pay" for killing three US soldiers over the weekend.
• In a post on Truth Social, the US president warned, "Every time Iran kills an American Soldier they will pay for that killing many times over!"
• Iranian-backed Houthis added to tensions on Monday after announcing a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, further raising the threat to global energy supplies and trade beyond the Gulf region.
• Iran had been pressing the Houthis to close the Bab el-Mandeb strait if the US had continued to attack Iranian power infrastructure.
• According to Reuters, a full closure of the strait would further reduce global oil supply by 7% as it would leave most of Saudi oil exports unable to leave the region.
• Oil prices initially rose following the blockade announcement, then pared back some of their gains after Iran said mediators had been in touch with proposals on how to ease hostilities with the US.
• Iran's Foreign Ministry said mediators had presented "proposals" to Tehran, signalling that an off-route for diplomacy remains active.
• A senior Iranian official told Reuters that one of the proposals from mediators was for a 10-day ceasefire designed to lead the way for a more permanent agreement.
• Secretary of State Marco Rubio also confirmed that Iran has sent signals that it was looking to negotiate with Washington, while also claiming that the Iranian government is split between members that want a peace agreement and hardliners who want to continue escalating tensions.
• In the UK, 10-year gilt yields rose as much as 7bps to 5.04% while the 30-year bond yield moved nearly 10bps higher to 5.75% after Britain’s seventh Prime Minister in a decade, Andy Burnham, said he will seek “any flexibility” in the government’s fiscal rules, raising concerns his administration may worsen the country’s fiscal debt.
• Burnham told reporters, “I’ve said we’ll stick to the fiscal rules [of the previous government], and by that I mean the existing fiscal rules, and use obviously any flexibility within them”.

DeFi / Web3 / Altcoins / Crypto

• President Donald Trump has reportedly agreed to ethics language for the CLARITY Act, according to The Block, potentially clearing the bill’s biggest remaining obstacle to a Senate vote.
• The provision is intended to limit how presidents, lawmakers and other senior U.S. officials can profit from digital assets while in office.
• Updated bill text is still pending, and lawmakers face a narrow window to advance the legislation before the Senate’s August recess.
• The London Stock Exchange reportedly plans to launch a separate overnight trading venue in the first half of 2027, operating from 5 pm to 7.50 am while its main market retains regular trading hours, according to the Financial Times.
• The venue will initially offer exchange-traded products, with the LSE aiming to expand overnight access to more than 2,600 listed ETPs to better serve international retail investors.
• The move reflects a broader push by traditional exchanges to extend trading hours as crypto platforms that already offer 24/7 trading have proved demand.
• As of July 20, Bitmine Immersion Technologies said it held 5.78M ETH, equivalent to about 4.8% of Ethereum's 120.7M circulating supply, alongside total crypto, cash and marketable securities of $11.5B.
• The company repurchased 5.5M shares over the past week under its previously announced $4B buyback program and has 4.92M ETH staked through its MAVAN validator network.
• This is 96% of the way towards Bitmine’s goal of acquiring 5% of Ethereum's total supply.
• Strategy raised approximately $263.5M by selling 2.73M MSTR shares between July 13 and July 19, while making no bitcoin purchases or sales during the period, according to its SEC filing.
• As of July 19, its U.S. dollar reserve had risen to $3.225B, with bitcoin holdings unchanged at 843,775 BTC acquired for roughly $63.7B.
• CoinShares, a digital asset manager, launched a UCITS platform (Europe's regulated investment fund framework widely used by institutional investors) to reach pension funds, insurers and private banks that may otherwise be restricted from holding crypto ETP debt securities.
• The platform debuted with the CoinShares Bitcoin Mining UCITS ETF, which began trading on Deutsche Börse Xetra on July 21 after launching on July 16.
• CoinShares said the authorized structure will support additional digital asset and thematic funds at lower marginal cost, expanding recurring management fees and creating operating leverage as assets under management grow.
• A Washington state judge temporarily blocked Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction market platform, from offering sports event contracts in the state, ruling they constitute illegal gambling under Washington law.
• The court rejected Kalshi's argument that the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) overrides state gambling laws, although the injunction will not take effect until at least Aug. 5 while the court reviews additional filings.
• The decision adds to a growing list of state-level setbacks for Kalshi as it battles regulators over whether sports prediction markets fall under federal commodities regulation or state gambling laws.
• Grayscale has filed a Form S-1 registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for a spot Worldcoin ETF that would hold WLD, the native token of the biometric identity-focused World network.
• If approved, the fund would trade on Nasdaq, with BNY Mellon as transfer agent and BitGo Bank & Trust as custodian.
• Vietnam has introduced new penalties for crypto trading outside platforms licensed by the Ministry of Finance, with individuals facing fines of roughly $1,140 to $1,900 and unlicensed service providers or advertisers facing up to $7,600.
• The rules take effect on Sept. 1, although enforcement may be delayed because no domestic exchange licenses have yet been issued.
• Five exchange applicants are under review, with Vietnam expecting its first regulated crypto market activity as early as the third quarter.

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