BTC Spot ETFs Record 10-Day Outflow Streak

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In Today's Note

• Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their longest outflow streak since launch, with 10 consecutive sessions of withdrawals and $2.97B in outflows since May 15.
• Global equities continued to rally, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq at new highs and the Nikkei-225 reaching a fresh record.
• Sui published its outage post-mortem, after three separate mainnet disruptions tied to upgrade bugs and validator recovery issues.
• Wintermute entered prediction markets as a liquidity provider, while Isabel Schnabel warned on stablecoin risks and a federal judge ordered Circle to blacklist Zama’s cUSDC contract.

Market Snapshot: Overnight Moves

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Macro & Markets

• Mixed signals around the prospects of a Middle East peace deal continue to cloud the macro environment, as the US-Iran war now enters its fourth month. 
• Stalling ceasefire talks and a record $2.97B outflow streak from Spot Bitcoin ETFs since May 15, 2026 has seen BTC trade rangebound between $72K and $74K over the weekend. 

• On Friday President Trump wrote that he would hold a Situation Room meeting to “make a final determination” on a preliminary agreement to extend the current ceasefire. That meeting finished around two hours later without any announcement on the conclusion. 
• According to Bloomberg, a White House official speaking on condition of anonymity claimed that Trump will only make a deal that satisfies his red lines — referring to the president’s demands that Iran must abandon its nuclear program, give up its supply of enriched uranium and re-open the Strait of Hormuz.

• On Saturday, Iranian state TV reported that there was a new “unofficial” and yet to be “finalised” draft agreement, which would give Tehran “exclusive authority to determine the nature of transiting vessels” in the strait. 
• The draft also said the US has committed to giving Iran access to $12B in frozen funds within 60 days, to be sent directly to Iranian banks without restrictions. 
• In early hours today, President Trump wrote on Truth Social that talks for an interim peace deal will “work out well”, though constant speculation over Trump’s negotiation style and the possibility of a deal has made it “MUCH tougher for me to properly do my job and negotiate”.

• Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen a record consecutive 10-session outflow streak which began on May 15 — the longest run of withdrawals since their debut in January 2024. 
• The ETF outflow streak and BTC’s sideways trading around $70K stands in stark contrast to the broader risk-on asset rally in global equities.
• The Nasdaq and S&P 500 hit new highs last Thursday, with both indexes ending Friday’s session green too. 
• The S&P 500 is up nearly 20% from its March lows and with 9 consecutive weeks of gains, it’s on its longest winning run since 2023. 
• Meanwhile in Asia, the Nikkei-225 reached the 67,000 level for the first time ever, setting a new all-time high. 

DeFi / Web3 / Altcoins / Crypto3

• SUI published an incident report and post-mortem covering the May 28–29 disruptions, where the network experienced three separate mainnet outages, including a roughly 6.5-hour halt on May 28, a 3.5-hour interruption early May 29, and a further nearly 6-hour outage later that day, before validators restored normal operations.
• The first two outages were traced to bugs introduced in the network’s v1.72 upgrade, specifically within newly deployed gas-charging logic that caused validators to crash when processing certain transactions and epoch transitions.
• During recovery, validators encountered a separate bug in the network’s randomness-state handling, which caused another halt when nodes attempted to resume block production, prompting emergency fixes to both the gas-payment and validator coordination mechanisms.

• The CFTC issued an order for approval to KalshiEX LLC for the listing of the BTCPERP contract, making Kalshi the first CFTC-registered designated contract market to officially list a BTCPERP contract with no expiration date.
• Ambiguity surrounding 24/7 CFTC-registered exchanges have been partially addressed, with the CFTC providing guidance for 24/7 trading, clearing and settlement. 

• Wintermute, a crypto market maker and algorithmic trading firm with more than $3.5T in annual trading volume, said it has entered the prediction markets sector as a liquidity provider across leading event-contract venues.
• The firm is now quoting continuous two-sided markets on prediction contracts, reflecting its view that prediction markets are emerging as a significant asset class for trading and hedging real-world event risk.

• ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel warned that the rapid growth of stablecoins could create financial stability risks and further strengthen the global dominance of the U.S. dollar, particularly as nearly all major stablecoins remain dollar-denominated.
• Speaking at a conference in Seoul, Schnabel said the appropriate response is “not to resist innovation but to ensure that it develops within a framework that preserves stability, monetary control and trust in the currency,” arguing that a digital euro and stronger regulation are needed to safeguard Europe’s monetary sovereignty, support public access to central bank money, and reduce reliance on non-European payment providers.

• A federal judge ordered Circle to blacklist Zama’s confidential USDC (cUSDC) contract, freezing roughly $12.6M after investors accused Overnight Finance founder Maxim Ermilov of moving treasury assets beyond the reach of OVN token holders ahead of a vote to liquidate and distribute the protocol’s treasury.
• The lawsuit alleges Ermilov transferred more than $15.7M from wallets linked to Overnight Finance, including about $12.5M USDC that was deposited into Zama’s confidential token system, a privacy-focused infrastructure that encrypts balances and transfer amounts while leaving wallet addresses publicly visible onchain.
• Circle’s blacklist was applied to the entire contract rather than a single wallet, freezing roughly $12.6M and prompting Zama to pause its confidential token products while investigating the incident, which the firm said had left the protocol “caught in the crossfire” of the Overnight Finance dispute.

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