After a double-digit rally in April, BTC has continued its ascent, even briefly trading past $82K — its highest level since end-January. As such, Block Scholes’ Risk Appetite Indices for both BTC and ETH have surged past a value of 1 and into a region that has typically marked further bullish price momentum. Since 2021, BTC has rallied by more than 12% on a monthly basis on 17 occasions, 9 of which were followed by a second month of higher spot prices. However, despite a backdrop of easing geopolitical tensions and a major crypto bill in the "red zone", derivatives markets are sending mixed signals.
Strong institutional demand has helped underpin a close to 12% rally in BTC’s spot price month-to-date, while derivative markets continue to fade the rally. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw their longest consecutive inflow streak since the 10/10 liquidation event, vacuuming more than $2.1B worth of bitcoins. Meanwhile, Strategy and BitMine have continued to showcase their insatiable appetite for bitcoin and ether, respectively: Strategy made its largest purchase since November 2024 earlier this month; BitMine recently purchased over 100,000 Ether. April is also on track to break 5 straight months of Spot Ethereum ETF outflows.
As the two-week ceasefire agreement with Iran was on the cusp of expiring, President Trump announced an indefinite extension, marking yet another reversal from his comments on Monday that an additional extension would be “highly unlikely”. Risk-appetite rose following the announcement with BTC trading up past $78K, its highest since the onset of the war, though it fell short at the $78.5K resistance wall. Our in-house Risk Appetite Metric has continued to tick higher too, and now moves at a year-to-date high for both BTC and ETH. Block Scholes’ Risk-Appetite Indexes for both major assets have once more crossed over the -0.5 threshold from below; a crossing that has typically marked a transition into a more bullish market regime.