The US Added 178K Jobs

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Market Snapshot: Overnight Moves

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Daily Updates:

• US markets start their long weekend today, closed for Good Friday. This means that we will not see a full risk-on asset market reaction to today's NFP report until Monday.
• The report showed nonfarm payrolls up by 178K in March, almost tripling the consensus estimate of 60K and marking the highest monthly gain since December 2024. Despite February’s numbers being revised sharply lower to -133K (from a prior reading of -92K that was already weak), January’s upward revision of 34K jobs to a 160K headline figure means the net revision was more than dominated by the beating of March’s expectations.

• The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3% from 4.4%, beating the 4.4% consensus and the 4.5% forecast — a strong sign that the labour market remains more resilient than many expected after the Fed's more hawkish tone at the February FOMC meeting (a meeting that saw reporters speculate on the conditions necessary for the FOMC to consider hiking).

• However, Chair Powell’s insistence on uncertainty due to the Iran war energy shock extends to economic data as the labour market continues to send conflicting signals from one month to the next.
• Today's NFP marks the 10th monthly release in a row (incl. the government shutdown reports of late 2025) that the headline job creation number has pointed in a different direction to the month preceding it.
• Government payrolls fell by 8K, continuing the trend of public sector contraction consistent with ongoing DOGE-related fiscal consolidation efforts. Manufacturing payrolls added 15K, reversing the prior month's -6K reading.

• US short-dated yields moved higher following the NFP release — the 2-year yield rose ~5bps to 3.850%, the 5-year. Gold is unmoved today due to market closure – following a strong week that saw it trade as high as $4.8K amid the ongoing Iran conflict, recovering from earlier pullbacks as the conflict has escalated.

• As of 3 Apr 2026 09:02:28 CT (ahead of the NFP), CME's FedWatch tool put the likelihood of a hike to the FFR as high as 6.9%. However, this market is closed for Good Friday. An equivalent bet on Polymarket (which is not closed for the holiday) reported little change to its odds, perhaps due to the net effect of an expectation-beating February number mitigated by strong downward revisions to the two previous months.

• While traditional markets are closed, we can look to crypto (both in crypto-native assets and tokenised RWAs) for a reaction.
• BTC is trading at ~$66.9K (+0.24% 24h) after giving up early-week gains following Trump's Wednesday evening television address, while ETH trades at ~$2,055 (-0.36% 24h). 
• Altcoins have suffered further this week, likely as a result of the $285M hack of Solana-based DEX Drift and its impact on sentiment across altcoin chains and DEXs.

• The Ethereum Foundation has staked another $93M from its treasury and has now reached its 70,000 ETH target. The foundation deposited the bulk of its planned staking commitment in a single session, completing a program announced in February to turn dormant treasury holdings into a yield-generating position.

• The CFTC has taken legal action against three US states to "Reaffirm its Exclusive Jurisdiction Over Prediction Markets." In a pronouncement, the CFTC accuses Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois of attempting to "outlaw, regulate, or otherwise restrain DCMs that facilitate trading in lawful event contracts," reiterating a preference for a singular regulatory regime over a "patchwork" between states.
• Each of the three states had previously issued cease and desist letters to CFTC-regulated operators offering sports-related event contracts, while Arizona had additionally brought criminal charges. The pronouncement is focused on the CFTC's claim of authority only, and appears not to modify or update the CFTC's stance on prediction markets.