Relief Rally Despite Ongoing Uncertainty

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• Block Scholes x Panoptic: Bridging The Onchain Convexity Gap

• Volatility Report: February 2026

• 2026 – the year of RWA perps?
  

• Bybit x Block Scholes: “2026: It's Different This Time?”

Market Snapshot: Overnight Moves

Daily Updates:

• Crypto and US equities recovered some of their losses, while oil prices eased overnight as optimism grows that the conflict with Iran may be nearing its end.
• BTC trades at $68,731.54, up 2.4% (24hr), while ETH is at $2,135.15, up 4.3% (24hr).
• The S&P 500 stands at $6,528.52, up 2.91% today, and the Nasdaq is at $21,590.63, up 3.83% today.
• Crude Oil tumbled to $98.78, down 2.56%, while Brent Crude stands at $101.64, down 2.24%.

• Despite an overnight relief rally, major indices recorded their sharpest quarterly declines in nearly four years. The S&P 500 fell 4.6% while the Dow dropped 3.6% in Q1 2026, both marking their worst quarters since Q3 2022, while the Nasdaq slid 7.1%, its weakest performance since Q1 2025, largely driven by losses following the escalation of the US-Iran conflict since February 28.

• The rebound came amid shifting geopolitical signals. Trump said that U.S. forces could withdraw from Iran within “two or three weeks,” adding that the US will "leave" Iran "very soon".
• "We're finishing the job, and I think within maybe two weeks, maybe a couple of days longer, to do the job."
• He added that there "could be a deal" between Washington and Tehran before then, but added "it doesn't matter if they come to the table or not. We've set them back 15-20 years. They have no navy, no military, no air force."
• Once the US was sure Iran would not be able to "come up with a nuclear weapon", then it would leave with or without a deal in place, Trump said.
• Suggesting that Washington is preparing for a near-term exit while maintaining pressure on Tehran, leaving the prospect of a deal uncertain but no longer essential to its withdrawal timeline.

• Reports indicated that President Trump had told aides he was open to ending the war, even if the crucial Strait of Hormuz is not fully reopened. 
• In parallel, The head of the Iranian parliament’s national security committee, Ebrahim Azizi, posted on X: “Trump has finally achieved his dream of ‘regime change’ – but in the region’s maritime regime! The Strait of Hormuz will certainly reopen, but not for you; it will be open for those who comply with the new laws of Iran. The 47 years of hospitality are over forever", underscoring that the vital corridor for global oil shipments would remain closed to U.S. vessels.
• The shift in sentiment was further supported by signs of diplomatic movement. A leaked National Security Council memo suggested that U.S. military objectives, targeting Iran’s missile systems and naval capabilities, may have largely been achieved, opening the door to a potential ceasefire or “mission accomplished” phase. 
• Meanwhile, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said that Iran has the "necessary will" to end the war under certain conditions, including recognition of Iran’s rights, reparations, and guarantees against future aggression.

• Australia has approved the Corporations Amendment (Digital Assets Framework) Bill 2025, requiring crypto exchanges and custody providers to obtain financial services licenses. 
• The law brings digital asset platforms under existing financial regulations, enforcing standards like transparency, fair conduct, and strong risk management.
• The legislation also amends key financial laws to define digital assets and tailor existing rules to these platforms, while granting regulators new oversight powers and allowing targeted exemptions. 
• It will take effect after a 12-month transition period, giving businesses time to comply.

• SBI Holdings’ institutional market maker subsidiary, B2C2, has chosen Solana as its primary network for processing and settling stablecoin transactions. 
• B2C2, which provides liquidity to major firms and has partnerships with companies like Standard Chartered and Anchorage Digital, will route large-scale flows through Solana, for institutional stablecoin activity.

• Sen. Mark Warner and more than 40 lawmakers released a press statement urging regulators to address illegal insider trading by federal employees in prediction markets. They highlighted that existing laws already ban officials from using non-public information for personal gain in derivatives trading, including event-based contracts.
• The lawmakers called on the CFTC to strengthen oversight and provide clearer guidance to ensure compliance, as prediction markets fall within its regulatory scope.

• U.S. authorities have charged 10 foreign nationals linked to firms including Gotbit, Vortex, Antier, and Contrarian for allegedly running coordinated crypto “pump-and-dump” schemes. Prosecutors say the group artificially boosted token prices and trading volumes through structured trading, then sold at inflated levels, leaving investors with losses.
• The FBI uncovered the scheme through “Operation Token Mirrors” by creating its own token, NexFundAI, and presenting it as a legitimate project to engage market-making firms. 
• This allowed investigators to directly observe and document how these firms allegedly offered and executed wash trading and price manipulation services across multiple jurisdictions, leading to arrests, extraditions, and over $1M in seized crypto.

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