"Obviously, this is a foolish violation of our Ceasefire Agreement".

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In Today's Note

• BTC stayed under pressure, trading between $58K and $61K over the weekend as spot Bitcoin ETFs saw more than $1.3B of withdrawals last week.
• Strategy traded below the value of its Bitcoin holdings, with its enterprise mNAV falling below 1 and its preferred stock dropping well below par, raising questions around its ability to keep funding BTC purchases through preferred issuance.
• US-Iran tensions flared again before talks resumed, after drone and missile attacks around the Strait of Hormuz triggered US retaliatory strikes, though both sides later agreed to stand down and restart negotiations in Qatar.
• Loopring is shutting down its DEX, while Kiwoom Securities is reportedly in talks to buy a stake in Bithumb as South Korean financial firms move further into crypto exchange ownership.

Market Snapshot: Overnight Moves

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Macro & Markets

• The selloff in US tech stocks last week extended into Friday’s session with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Sector index falling 5.29% and ending the week down 9.61%. 
• Despite traders continuing to exit positions in mega-cap tech stocks (NVDA down 9% over the past week, AAPL down 5%), the S&P 500 ended the day mostly flat. 
• The Nasdaq-100 fell by a larger 1.09%, while oil prices have continued to drop lower — Brent is now trading below $72 per barrel, back at its pre-war levels. 

• Sentiment in crypto markets continued to put downward pressure on crypto spot prices as BTC fell below $59K a number of times over the weekend. Since Friday it has consolidated between $58K and $61K. 
• US spot-Bitcoin ETFs saw over $1.3B of withdrawals last week, while the average ETF cost basis — the average price at which spot ETF holders bought BTC — is around $83K. 

• Weighing down further on sentiment, Michael Saylor’s Strategy Inc. saw its market value slip below the value of its Bitcoin holdings, as its Market-to-Net Asset Value (mNAV) fell to 0.99. The company’s enterprise value has dropped to $50.4B, while its Bitcoin holdings are currently worth just above $51.1B. 
• Over the last 30 days, Strategy’s Common stock is down 46%, while its STRC preferred stock, which is intended to keep a price of $100, briefly fell as low as $74.

• Last Friday President Trump accused Iran of violating their June 17 ceasefire agreement after the Iranian military fired at cargo ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz.
• On Truth Social, Trump wrote "at least four" one-way attack drones targeted ships in the waterway and one of them "solidly hit the upper deck of a large and very expensive" cargo ship. 
• He added that "Obviously, this is a foolish violation of our Ceasefire Agreement".  
• Shortly after that post, the US military responded with what would become the first wave of a retaliatory strike. 

• Over the weekend Iran then launched another drone attack on a ship carrying Qatari oil, prompting another round of US strikes. 
• Those US strikes were followed by a series of missile and drone attacks from Iran's Islamic Revolution Guard Corps on a naval base in Bahrain.
• The US Central Command said on X that "Iran was given a chance to honor the ceasefire agreement but elected not to” and that it had hit Iranian military surveillance infrastructure, communications systems, air defense sites, drone storage facilities and minelayer capabilities.
• Iran's foreign ministry in a statement on Saturday called the US attack "an explicit violation of the first paragraph of the Memorandum of Understanding" that the two countries signed and the IRGC said on Sunday that "based on the Islamabad MoU, the traffic control arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz are with Iran, and from now on, violating ships will be dealt with more strongly than before”.

• Late Sunday however, Axios News reported that, according to a senior US official, both sides have since agreed to halt the weekend tit-for-tat strikes and renew talks over the Strait of Hormuz and other key contentions of their peace agreement.
• According to the official, "Technical talks are slated to continue on all areas of the MOU. Both sides will stand down for ‌now and vessels can move freely”.
• Peace talks are now expected to resume on Tuesday in Qatar between the two sides, after originally being set to take place in Switzerland. 

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DeFi / Web3 / Altcoins / Crypto3

• Michael Saylor also has hinted that Strategy may be preparing to disclose another bitcoin purchase, even as the company’s BTC position sits roughly $13B underwater.
• On Sunday, Saylor posted Strategy’s bitcoin acquisition chart on X with the caption, “We’re gonna need more charts.” 
• The post is widely read as his usual signal that a new purchase announcement could follow in a Monday filing.
• Strategy currently holds 847,363 BTC at an average cost of about $75,646. With bitcoin trading near $60,000, the company’s holdings are now worth significantly less than what it paid for them.
• The possible new buy would come after Strategy’s smallest recent purchase. 
• On June 22, the company disclosed that it had bought 520 BTC for around $35M, a much slower pace than in previous weeks.

• Loopring is shutting down its decentralized exchange, bringing one of Ethereum’s earliest zkRollup projects to an effective close after years of limited adoption.
• The team said the DEX relayer went offline shortly after the announcement. 
• Loopring, widely regarded as Ethereum’s first zkRollup project, is shutting down its decentralized exchange after failing to build meaningful adoption.
• Loopring launched before Ethereum-compatible zkEVMs became standard, which meant it lacked smart contract composability and could not support the wider range of apps that newer Layer 2 networks now offer. 
• The team also pointed to weak business development, limited real-world payment use cases, and exchange delistings of its LRC token.

• South Korea’s Kiwoom Securities is reportedly in talks to acquire a stake in Bithumb, the country’s second-largest crypto exchange.
• According to a local media report, the deal would involve Bithumb issuing new shares through a third-party allocation, with Kiwoom purchasing those shares. 
• The size of the investment and final ownership percentage are still being discussed, however, Bithumb has not confirmed a deal. 
• A company spokesperson said no specific decision has been made, but added that Bithumb is speaking with several financial institutions and companies about possible partnerships.
• South Korea is also working on a broader crypto regulatory framework known as the Digital Asset Basic Act. 
• One proposal under discussion could limit how much of a crypto exchange a single shareholder can own, with 20% seen as the baseline and up to 34% possible in certain cases.
• Bithumb is also preparing for a future public listing. The exchange has signed an IPO advisory agreement with Samjong KPMG, and its CFO has said the listing is likely to take place in 2028.

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