Gold Climbs to $4,279, Moving in Tandem with Bitcoin and Ether

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In Today's Note

• Gold traded at $4,279 an ounce, up 0.75% on the day and 4.3% over five days, moving in step with crypto rather than against it. BTC was at $64,873, up 2.9% over the same window, while ETH climbed back above $1,900 for the first time in a week.
• July ADP private payrolls rose just 44,000, the weakest print of 2026 and short of the 70,000-75,000 consensus. Fed Governor Lisa Cook still said inflation is too high and that she is prepared to act by raising rates if necessary.

Market Snapshot: Overnight Moves

Macro & Markets

• BTC traded at $64,873 this morning, up 1.3% over the past 24 hours and 2.9% over the past five days while ETH climbed back above $1,900 for the first time in a week, gaining 2.5% on the day to $1,914 and 2.5% over the five-day window.
• Gold has moved in tandem, trading at $4,279 per ounce, up 0.75% on the day and 4.3% over five days.

• US equities ended mixed on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.49%, to 54,349.12, marking a third consecutive record close and a fifth straight positive day while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gave back some of Tuesday's gains.
• The S&P 500 ended 0.17% lower, retreating from Tuesday's all-time high and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.83%.
• The Russell 2000 rose 1.85%, pointing to a rotation into small caps.

• Pressure on tech companies came from post-earnings selling in companies investing heavily in AI infrastructure, with SpaceX ending down 13.61% from its Tuesday high and AMD down 7.04% following their Tuesday-evening reports. Alphabet lost 4.58%, Amazon 1.66% and Chevron 2.05%.
• Upside was concentrated in Nvidia (+3.84%), Amgen (+5.16%), Disney (+3.83% after reporting fiscal Q3 2026 results before the market opened on Wednesday, 5 August, followed by its earnings call at 8:30 a.m. ET (1:30 p.m. BST)) and Eli Lilly (+4.9% after beating on revenue and raising full-year guidance despite a Q2 EPS miss).

• Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei confirmed on Wednesday that Iran and Oman have agreed on the "geographical coordinates" of a proposed safe shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Axios reported separately that Washington, Tehran and Muscat are closing in on an interim 60-day framework, under which inbound traffic would travel via a northern lane in Iranian waters and outbound vessels via a southern lane in Omani waters coordinated with Iran, with no tolls charged for the 60-day period and mines cleared from the median lane within 30 days.
• Ahead of the reports, Trump told Fox News on Tuesday night that "the Strait's going to be open very soon or they are going to get hit very hard", and later said in California that a deal could come "tomorrow or the next day".

• Oil steadied following Tuesday's sharp selloff, with Brent crude holding around $80 per barrel and WTI around $76 into Wednesday's close.
• Brief intraday spikes came from a Houthi-claimed strike on a Saudi tanker in the Red Sea and a second reported explosion event near Kumzar, Oman, on the southern side of the strait.

• The July ADP private payrolls report, released Wednesday morning, showed private sector employment rose by just 44,000 versus consensus expectations of 70,000-75,000, the weakest monthly print of 2026.
• June was revised down to +95,000 from an initially reported +98,000. Services added 47,000 jobs, with education and health services contributing 36,000 and financial activities adding 10,000, while goods-producing industries lost 3,000 and leisure and hospitality lost 11,000.
• Wage growth held at 4.4% for job-stayers but rose to 7.0% for job-changers, the strongest pace since August 2025.
• The ISM Services PMI ticked up to 54.1 in July from 54.0 in June, below the 54.5 consensus but marking a 25th consecutive month in growth and Business Activity rose 3.7 points to 59.1, its second-highest reading since May 2024.

• Fed Governor Lisa Cook, speaking at an Anchorage Economic Development Corp luncheon on Wednesday, said "inflation is too high" and that the risks to the inflation side of the dual mandate now outweigh the risks to the employment side.
• Cook, who voted with the 9-3 majority to hold rates last week, said she is "prepared to act by raising rates, if necessary" and warned that the Fed "does not have that luxury" of waiting for disinflation to resume in the current environment.
• Her remarks follow similar comments from New York Fed's Williams and Philadelphia Fed's Paulson over the past week, broadening the hawkish tilt beyond the three formal dissenters at the July meeting.

• The Japanese yen traded around 157.53 per dollar on Wednesday, roughly flat on the session and holding steady after last week's coordinated Japan-US intervention.
• Treasury Secretary Bessent said on CNBC Tuesday that the US would do "whatever it takes" to support Japan's efforts to stabilise the currency, echoing Mario Draghi's famous 2012 pledge on the euro.
• Friday's joint operation, the first US yen-buying intervention since 1998, deployed a combined $87B, with the BoJ spending an estimated 5.33 trillion yen after a further reported 8.45 trillion the day before.

• The RatingDog China Services PMI fell to 50.4 in July from 54.1 in June, well below the 53.7 consensus and the weakest reading since September 2024. The miss follows a soft official manufacturing PMI print of 49.2 and points to renewed softening in domestic demand.

DeFi / Web3 / Altcoins / Crypto3

• Coinbase has launched 24/5 trading for nearly 4,000 U.S. stocks in the UK, allowing eligible users to trade traditionally issued American shares alongside cryptocurrencies through a single platform.
• The service includes zero-commission trading, fractional shares starting from £1, and instant funding using GBP or USDC.
• The launch is part of Coinbase's "Everything Exchange" strategy, which aims to bring traditional finance and digital assets together in one ecosystem.
• The company also plans to expand its product offerings across the UK and Europe as regulations evolve, strengthening its position as a unified financial platform for retail investors.

• Japanese stablecoin issuer JPYC has raised $38M in an extended Series B round to expand its Web3 ecosystem and accelerate adoption of its yen-backed digital currency.
• The round includes a $6.3M investment from logistics company AZ-COM Maruwa, which plans to explore JPYC for partner fees and contractor payments.

• Ark Invest purchased roughly $17.3M in Circle shares and $20M in SpaceX stock following both companies’ Q2 results.
• Circle reported revenue and reserve income of $701M, while USDC circulation rose to $73.3B.
• SpaceX posted strong revenue growth but saw its shares fall sharply as investors reacted to $18.4B in quarterly capital expenditure.

• The U.S. Senate's effort to advance the Clarity Act has stalled ahead of the August recess, with lawmakers continuing negotiations over ethics rules, anti-money laundering safeguards and law enforcement concerns.
• On Aug. 5, Senate Democratic staffers said discussions were "at a standstill" as Senate Majority Leader John Thune had yet to file the procedural cloture motion needed to move the bill forward.
• With the Senate set to recess this week, a vote before the break appears unlikely, though bipartisan negotiations continue and supporters remain hopeful the legislation could return for consideration in September.

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