Crypto Risk Appetite Report 22nd October 2026

BLOCK SCHOLES BTC RISK APPETITE INDEX

BTC has recovered to $84.4K after touching $80.1K in the selloff that followed last week's hotter-than-expected US CPI print, helped by strong tech earnings and a $526.7M net inflow into US spot BTC ETFs on 19 October, their largest single day since 22 September. Our Risk-Appetite Index has steadied at 0.97, little changed from 1.00 a week ago, after easing from its 1.36 peak on 19 September. With the Index holding above the 0.5 threshold since late August and spot pinned inside the $80K-$87K range it has traded for the past month, a break of either end of that range is likely needed before sentiment moves decisively.

Figure 1. Block Scholes BTC Risk-Appetite Index (white, left axis) against the BTC spot price (right axis). Source: Block Scholes.

BTC SPOT RETURNS AFTER RISK APPETITE INDEX CROSSES FROM BELOW -1.0 THRESHOLD:

Figure 2. BTC spot returns in the days around each time the BTC Risk-Appetite Index crossed up through -1.0, with the current episode in white and the mean of prior episodes in red. Source: Block Scholes.

BLOCK SCHOLES ETH RISK APPETITE INDEX

Sentiment in ETH continues to fade, with our Index falling to 0.82 from 0.94 last week as spot slipped 6% over the past month to $2,480. Institutional demand is the weak point: US spot ETH ETFs have seen $1.08B of net outflows in October through 20 October, the largest monthly outflow of 2026, in contrast to the renewed inflows into BTC products. The current episode has now run its full 100 days since the Index crossed up through -1.0 on 13 July, with ETH up 36% against a mean of 28% across the nine prior episodes. At its current pace of decline of around 0.1 a week, however, the Index would fall back to the 0.5 threshold by mid-November if the ETF outflows persist.

Figure 3. Block Scholes ETH Risk-Appetite Index (white, left axis) against the ETH spot price (right axis). Source: Block Scholes.

ETH SPOT RETURNS AFTER RISK APPETITE INDEX CROSSES FROM BELOW -1.0 THRESHOLD:

Figure 4. ETH spot returns in the days around each time the ETH Risk-Appetite Index crossed up through -1.0, with the current episode in white and the mean of prior episodes in red. Source: Block Scholes.

Data behind Risk Appetite charts: BlockScholes BTC/ETH/SOL/SUI/XRP composite spot index price. Available via the BlockScholes REST API.

BLOCK SCHOLES ALTCOIN RISK APPETITE INDEX

Figure 5. Block Scholes Altcoin Risk-Appetite Index (white, left axis) against altcoin market capitalisation (right axis). Source: Block Scholes.

BLOCK SCHOLES XRP RISK APPETITE INDEX

Figure 6. Block Scholes XRP Risk-Appetite Index (white, left axis) against the XRP spot price (right axis). Source: Block Scholes.

BLOCK SCHOLES SUI RISK APPETITE INDEX

Figure 7. Block Scholes SUI Risk-Appetite Index (white, left axis) against the SUI spot price (right axis). Source: Block Scholes.

BLOCK SCHOLES SOL RISK APPETITE INDEX

Figure 8. Block Scholes SOL Risk-Appetite Index (white, left axis) against the SOL spot price (right axis). Source: Block Scholes.