Bitcoin Holds Its Range as Renewed US-Iran Strikes Lift Oil Prices

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In Today's Note

• Risk assets digested renewed US strikes on Iran, which hit around 90 targets, in cautious fashion: the S&P 500 pared its losses to close down 0.28% while the Nasdaq-100 rose 0.27%, and Brent crude jumped 5% to briefly top $80 before easing to $77. The June FOMC minutes, the first under new Chair Kevin Warsh, revealed a divided committee, with a few participants arguing the case for a rate hike. BTC trades at $62.8K (+1.4%) and ETH at $1,753 (+1.1%) at the time of writing.
• The European Commission is exploring a MiCA revision to address the rise of tokenization and non-EU stablecoins, potentially extending the rulebook to tokenized stocks. Elsewhere, Hyundai Card completed its first real-world stablecoin remittance pilot, moving $20,000 via USDT on Avalanche; Paradigm raised a $1.2B fourth fund spanning crypto, AI and robotics; and Binance Wallet integrated Plume's nBASIS yield vault, offering onchain exposure to tokenized Invesco and Bitwise funds.

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Market Snapshot: Overnight Moves

Macro & Markets

• The flare-up in the Middle East has so far been digested by risk-on assets in a cautious manner, though oil prices reacted more strongly. 
• The S&P 500 initially fell by as much as 1.1% yesterday following President Trump’s earlier comments that the ceasefire agreement was “over”. However the index trimmed its losses to close slightly lower at -0.28% by the end of the day, after Trump indicated the US was unlikely to return back to a full-scale war. 
• The Nasdaq-100 actually closed higher (+0.27%) and after a selloff earlier in the week, chipmakers climbed higher with the Philadelphia Semiconductor index closing up 2.23%. 
• BTC on the other hand has spent most of the past 24 hours trading within the range of $61K and $62K.
• The re-escalation in tensions did, however, break a three-day inflow streak into spot Bitcoin ETFs, which saw $84.9M leave the funds yesterday. 

• The US military struck about 90 targets in Iran yesterday, including air defense systems and missile and drone storage sites. 
• The move follows the first round of the new strikes on Tuesday this week. The US Central Command said on X that it had hit those targets "to further degrade" Iran’s ability to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. 
• The attacks came just hours after Trump said “We hit them very hard last night” and we will “Probably hit them hard again tonight” at the NATO summit in Turkey. 
• Iranian media also reported that US forces had hit railways and transport lines across the capital Tehran. 
• Tehran responded however by targeting a number of US bases across the Persian Gulf, including Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar, while Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned on X, "Let me be clear: If you strike, you will be struck back". 
• The renewed hostilities saw Brent crude jump 5% on Wednesday, briefly exceeding $80 per barrel before paring back losses to $77. 

• On his return back to Washington, while aboard Air Force One, President Trump told reporters, "We just hit them very hard, and I say we hit them 20 to 1. Every time they hit us, we'll hit them 20". 
• When asked about the prospects of another full-scale military campaign, he responded, "I don't know. We'd win it very quickly. We have many ways we could win" and then later said “I don’t think it’s going to start again.”
• He added that while the Iranians wanted to reach an agreement, “I just don’t know if they’re worthy of making a deal. I don’t know that they’re going to honour the deal.”
• Earlier on Wednesday when Trump was asked about the ceasefire, he replied “I think it’s over”.

• Concerns around inflation in the US reveal a divided Fed, according to the meeting minutes of its last meeting in June under new Chair Kevin Warsh. 
• A "few participants" at the June 16-17 meeting suggested “there was a case for raising the target range for the federal funds rate” at that meeting, though ultimately policymakers decided to hold interest rates unchanged. 

• According to the meeting minutes, “Most participants” saw a scenario where inflationary pressures would “dissipate and inflation would soon begin to return to 2 percent”; a case that would mean it “would likely be appropriate to maintain or eventually lower the target range for the federal funds rate.” 
• However, “Most participants” also pointed to alternate scenarios where inflation would “remain elevated due to strong AI-related demand, the conflict in the Middle East, or the effects of tariffs”. Under such a scenario, assuming labour market conditions hold up, “almost all of these participants indicated that some policy firming would likely be warranted to return inflation to 2 percent.”

• The minutes also revealed that “many participants indicated that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate would be within or slightly below the current target range at the end of this year. Many other participants, however, assessed that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate would be above the current target range at the end of this year.”

DeFi / Web3 / Altcoins / Crypto3

• The European Commission is exploring updates to MiCA to address the rapid rise of tokenization and stablecoins issued outside the EU.
• The review could expand Europe’s crypto rulebook to cover tokenized stocks and other emerging onchain financial products that have grown since MiCA was first drafted.
• The report also noted that Brussels is assessing how global regulatory shifts, including U.S. stablecoin legislation, may affect Europe’s framework.

• Hyundai Card has completed its first real-world stablecoin remittance pilot with Tether and Avalanche, marking a practical step toward blockchain-based corporate payments.
• The proof-of-concept moved $20,000 between Hyundai Motor’s U.S. and Mexico entities using USDT on Avalanche. The transfer reportedly took around seven minutes, compared with several hours for a traditional interbank process.
• Hyundai Card said the pilot was tied to actual intercompany settlement needs rather than a theoretical blockchain test.
• The company is now preparing a second pilot in Europe with Visa and Circle, focused on testing stablecoin remittances across additional local currencies.

• Sony Bank has received conditional approval from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to establish Connectia Trust, a national trust bank subsidiary focused on digital assets.
• Backed with $40M in capital, Connectia Trust plans to issue and manage a U.S. dollar-backed stablecoin, with a potential launch in 2027 pending final regulatory approval.

• Paradigm has raised a $1.2B fourth fund as the crypto venture firm expands its investment focus beyond digital assets.
• The new vehicle will back startups across crypto, AI, robotics, and other frontier technology sectors, while Paradigm says it will continue supporting blockchain-focused companies.
• Paradigm has previously backed companies including Hyperliquid, Kalshi, Zipline, True Anomaly, and Nous Research.

• According to The Block, Binance Wallet has integrated Plume’s nBASIS yield vault, giving users access to tokenized funds managed by Invesco and Bitwise.
• The vault offers onchain exposure to Invesco’s Short Duration U.S. Government Securities Fund and Bitwise’s Crypto Carry Fund, both tokenized by Superstate and currently yielding around 3.5%.
• The Block reported that this is Binance Wallet’s first structured income real-world asset yield product integration, highlighting the growing push to distribute tokenized institutional funds directly through crypto wallets.

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This Week's Calendar

Charts of the Day

Figure 1. Block Scholes BTC Risk-Appetite Index (white, left-hand axis) and BTC spot price (orange, right-hand axis).

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Figure 2. Block Scholes ETH Risk-Appetite Index (white, left-hand axis) and ETH spot price (purple, right-hand axis).

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Figure 3. BTC at-the-money implied volatility across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes.

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Figure 4. ETH at-the-money implied volatility across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes.

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Figure 5. BTC 25-delta put-call skew ratio across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes.

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Figure 6. ETH 25-delta put-call skew ratio across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes.

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