A Double-Sided Ceasefire

Find out oFind out our latest reports, listed below:‍

• Block Scholes x Panoptic: Bridging The Onchain Convexity Gap
• Volatility Report: February 2026
• 2026 – the year of RWA perps?
• Bybit x Block Scholes: “2026: It's Different This Time

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Market Snapshot: Overnight Moves

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Daily Updates:

• The US and Iran have agreed to a Pakistan-brokered “conditional” ceasefire, with Trump making the announcement just hours before his 8PM ET Tuesday deadline.
• The two week ceasefire is conditional on Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic during the two week ceasefire period – a fact not lost on Oil markets.
• WTI crude fell as much as 19% from an intraday high near $117 to ~$95 — the largest single-day drop in almost six years. Brent slid ~16% to ~$93. The swing erases the bulk of the geopolitical risk premium built over the past two weeks but does not return it to pre-war levels of $65 per barrel.

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• US equity markets are yet to open after the announcement, but Hyperliquid’s licensed S&P 500 perpetual trades at 6783 (with the index having closed at 6616.85 last night), implying a 2.5% rally.
• We see the same risk-on sentiment in crypto, with BTC recovering to ~$71,847 (+4.2% 24h) after dipping toward ~$68,270 on Tuesday morning as traders awaited the war deadline. ETH outperformed at +6.7% to ~$2,258, still ~55% below its Aug 2025 ATH of ~$4,954.
• We saw broader altcoin relief too: SOL +6.0% to $84.89, XRP +4.7% to $1.38, HYPE +8.5% to $39.55, SUI +8.8% to $0.95.

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• Gold rose ~3.4% to above $4.8K per ounce, supported by USD weakness (DXY -1.0%) despite the risk-on pivot.
• 10Y UST yield fell 7bps to 4.24%, and the dollar strength index dropped to its lowest level since early March.
• The sharp move higher was driven by the liquidation of short positions that had built up during the 39-day war.

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• Coinglass data suggests that $427M in short positions were liquidated in the sudden move higher.
• The move in option markets was likely driven by similar unwinds of positions – implied volatility of very-short dated positions (of one-week or shorter) spiked the front-end of the implied vol term structure between 5–10 points for both BTC and ETH, but longer-dated options trade with a smaller premium after the announcement released some of the uncertainty that the war may stretch over a longer horizon.
• The move was sharper and more sustained in the skew of volatility smiles, which have erased their bearish tilt at a one-week tenor. Tenors longer than one week are slower to move, but have also given up much of their extreme bearish positioning.

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• Morgan Stanley is set to launch its own Bitcoin ETF on the NYSE, joining 12 extant ETF tickers already listed in the US.
• This ETF launch marks the first from a major US commercial bank, and puts fees at 0.14%, 11 basis points below BlackRock’s flagship Bitcoin ETF (IBIT).
• Despite the news, Bitcoin ETFs lost a net of $159.1M after Monday’s blockbuster $471.4M inflows.

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• Spot Ethereum ETFs saw $120M inflow on April 6 (56,980 ETH) — first significant positive day since early March. BlackRock ETHA $60.8M, Fidelity FETH $40.1M. Institutional accumulation through ETF vehicles contrasted sharply with retail Fear & Greed at 12 (“Extreme Fear”).

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• Polygon activated the Giugliano hardfork at block 85,268,500 (~2pm UTC April 8) — on schedule without any disruption reported. Delivers 2-second reduction in transaction finality via earlier block announcement; adds fee parameters in block headers. Separate from the Gigagas 100K TPS roadmap.

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• Aave DAO confirmed LlamaRisk will absorb risk coverage following Chaos Labs’ exit after three years. CEO Omer Goldberg cited “fundamental misalignment” on V4 scope, stating the engagement had run at a loss: “Even with an increase of $1 million, we’d still be operating AAVE’s risk with negative margins.” Chaos had requested $8M vs the DAO’s proposed $5M renewal. Stani Kulechov confirmed the two-layer risk model will be maintained. (CoinDesk, The Defiant).

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• CME Group announced on April 7 that it will list SUI futures from May 4, with 24/7 trading from May 29.
• The contracts come in micro and larger sizes, adding to CME’s crypto derivatives complex which averaged nearly $8B in notional value traded daily in March (+19% y/y). SUI is the latest alt to get CME-listed futures alongside BTC, ETH, SOL, and now AVAX. 
• Four SUI ETPs from 21Shares, Grayscale, and Canary Funds have launched in 2026.

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• Coinbase Australia secured an AFSL directly from ASIC on April 8 — the first crypto exchange to do so (Crypto.com obtained derivatives capability via acquisition of Fintek Securities in 2024).
• The licence covers retail derivatives, with crypto and equity perpetuals launching first, followed by futures, options, and stock trading.

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This Week's Calendar:

Charts of the Day:

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