‘Uptober’

Find out our latest reports, listed below:

• Bybit x Block Scholes August Volatility Review

‍

• Bybit x Block Scholes Quarterly Report: What will drive crypto in Q3 2025?

‍

• Bybit x Block Scholes Quarterly Report: Altcoin season and the evolving role of Bitcoin

‍

‍

‍

Market Snapshot: Overnight Moves:

Daily Updates:

• A month that is often dubbed ‘Uptober’ by those in the crypto hemisphere is certainly living up to its name – at least two days in. Over the past 24 hours, BTC has surged nearly 4% from $114K to $118K, while ETH is up 6% over the same period, trading just shy of $4,400.
• That rally has also been supported by a three-day run of consecutive inflows into the Bitcoin Spot ETFs, which bought $270.3M of bitcoins yesterday. Ethereum Spot ETFs also recorded a third positive inflow day, though underperformed — purchasing $54.7M worth of the token.

‍

• The bounce in spot price has also been accompanied by a drift in the relative richness of OTM puts for both majors. ETH’s 7-day vol smile which indicated a sharply bearish 12 vol point preference for OTM puts early yesterday morning, now shows a put-call skew ratio of just -1%. For BTC, the 7-day smile shows a -0.01% skew towards puts — an effectively neutral stance from options traders.

‍

• The rally in crypto-assets was also part of a broader risk-on surge as US equities also ended yesterday’s session higher. The S&P 500 index notched yet another record high — even amidst a government shutdown that’s showing little signs of resolving.
• US treasuries jumped higher too following data suggesting that the US labour market is still weakening.
• According to data from ADP Research, private-sector payrolls fell by 32,000 in September, while the August number was lowered to 3,000, from an initial reading of 54,000.
• The September reading fell remarkably short of the Bloomberg median estimate from economists pointing towards a 51,000 gain. It was also the largest number of private-sector jobs shed by the US economy since March 2023 based on ADP data.
• Chief ADP Economist, Nela Richardson, stated that “Despite the strong economic growth we saw in the second quarter, this month's release further validates what we've been seeing in the labor market, that U.S. employers have been cautious with hiring.”
• The report also stated that the negative print was due in part to recently revised BLS data — nonetheless, "the trend was unchanged; job creation continued to lose momentum across most sectors."

‍

• Yields on two-year treasury notes fell 6bps towards 3.55% following the ADP release, while the yield on 10-year treasuries dropped to 4.10%. Gold futures prices hit yet another high of $3,897.50 per ounce.
• That response in the bond market may have been exacerbated by the likelihood that Friday’s NFP report may not be released amidst the ongoing federal government shutdown.
• Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee also said yesterday that the lack of official data will make it difficult for Fed policymakers to parse the state of the US economy ahead of their October meeting. Goolsbee said that the Fed is “going into a period where you’re trying to figure out: Is this a transition?” and “if you’re not going to get the data, it’s just that much harder.” The Chicago President also noted the fact that while there are non-governmental sources of labour market data, e.g., ADP data, there are fewer sources for inflation statistics — a CPI inflation report is expected to be released on Oct 15, 2025, before the FOMC meet and could be delayed should the government shutdown extend into this date.

‍

• World Liberty Financial, a DeFi protocol that is majority owned by the Trump family, has announced plans to launch a slew of new products, including a debit card and tokenised commodity assets.
• At Token2049 yesterday, WLF’s CEO Zach Witkoff said that the debit card would “bridge crypto assets with everyday spending”.
• Witkoff added that the WLF team is also looking into tokenising real-world commodities on its platform too — “We’ve not only thought about it, we’re actively working on it”
• Witkoff said “I think commodities are a really interesting area for us, whether it be oil, gas, things like cotton, timber, all of those things, frankly, should be traded onchain.”
• The CEO also mentioned plans of tokenising the Trump family’s real estate portfolio: “The Trump family has one of the most exciting real estate asset portfolios in the world … What if I told you that you could, you know, go on an exchange and buy one token of Trump Tower Dubai?

• Throughout 2025, the concept of tokenisation has picked up huge steam, particularly following the US government’s more friendly stance towards digital assets. Just yesterday, also at Token2049, the CEO of Robinhood Markets Inc., Vlad Tenev, said that tokenisation “is a freight train and it’ll eat the entire financial system”.

‍

• U.S. Congressman Nick Begich (R-Alaska) is advocating for Bitcoin to become part of America’s strategic reserves, arguing that the nation must diversify beyond its heavy reliance on gold. Speaking at the BTC in D.C. conference on Wednesday, Begich said he envisions “a strong emphasis on bitcoin” to secure the country’s long-term economic future.
• Begich, alongside Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.), introduced the BITCOIN Act earlier this year. The legislation would authorize the U.S. to acquire one million bitcoins over five years using “budget neutral strategies,” effectively treating Bitcoin as a reserve asset akin to gold.
• The proposal follows an Executive Order signed in March 2025, which created a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and mandated that digital assets seized  through enforcement actions be held in permanent federal holdings.

‍

• Messaging giant Telegram is expanding into tokenized finance, announcing that users will soon be able to trade U.S. equities and ETFs directly through its native wallet.
• The new feature launches in October in partnership with Kraken’s xStocks platform and tokenization provider Backed, marking one of the largest retail rollouts of tokenized stocks to date.
• At launch, Telegram Wallet’s custodial service will support more than 60 tokenized equities and ETFs, including Apple, Tesla, and the S&P 500. The company also plans to extend access to its TON-based self-custodial wallet.

‍

• Sui Group Holdings, a Nasdaq-listed digital asset treasury, is preparing to roll out two U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoins on the Sui Layer 1 blockchain. The firm will issue suiUSDe, which provides yield to holders, and USDi, a non-yield-bearing version. The launch is set to take place before year-end through a partnership with stablecoin startup Ethena.
• The initiative comes as stablecoin competition intensifies, with Sui Group leveraging its $300M in SUI token reserves and a discounted token acquisition agreement with the Sui Foundation. Formerly known as Mill City Ventures, the company transitioned into digital assets after raising $450M in private funding.
• Under the proposed GENIUS Act, the prohibition on passing yield to stablecoin holders reflects policymakers’ concern that yield-bearing tokens can blur the line between a stablecoin and a security.

‍

• Avalanche Treasury Co. (AVAT), a digital asset treasury company aligned with the Avalanche ecosystem, announced yesterday a definitive business combination with Mountain Lake Acquisition Corp. (Nasdaq: MLAC) valued at more than $675M.
• The transaction includes approximately $460M in treasury assets, funded through an equity private placement, and is designed to establish AVAT as a leading public vehicle for institutional exposure to AVAX tokens. The combined entity is expected to list on Nasdaq in Q1 2026, pending shareholder and regulatory approval.

‍

This Week’s Calendar:

‍

‍

Charts of the Day:

‍

‍

‍

‍

‍