Trump Pushes Crypto Reform

Daily Updates:

• U.S. President Donald Trump declared that the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (“GENIUS”) Act is set to pass early Wednesday morning. He announced the following on Truth Social:

“I am in the Oval Office with 11 of the 12 Congressmen/women necessary to pass the GENIUS Act and, after a short discussion, they have all agreed to vote tomorrow morning in favor of the Rule. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson was at the meeting via telephone, and looks forward to taking the Vote as early as possible. I want to thank the Congressmen/women for their quick and positive response. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!” 

• He also mentioned speaking with House Speaker Mike Johnson, who plans to hold the vote “as early as possible.”

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• On Tuesday evening, the House voted 196 to 223 against advancing three key bills scheduled for the week—including the GENIUS Act and the Digital Asset Market Clarity (“CLARITY”) Act—delaying the much-anticipated debate during this so-called “Crypto Week.”
• The GENIUS Act, already passed by the Senate, would require U.S. dollar or equivalent liquid assets to fully back stablecoins, impose annual audits on issuers with market caps over $50B, and set rules for foreign stablecoin issuance. Trump has voiced strong support, emphasizing that USD stablecoins will play a vital role in maintaining dollar dominance, with hopes to sign the bill before August.
• Following Trump’s announcement, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise posted an updated voting schedule, setting votes on the GENIUS Act, CLARITY Act, and Anti-CBDC Act to begin Wednesday, July 16.

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• After briefly dipping to $117K early this morning, BTC has since rebounded +1.82% and is currently trading above $119.3K following a record-breaking rally past $123K yesterday. The pullback was followed by a rebound, with major altcoins like ETH, XRP, and SOL bouncing back—each up 2.6% to 4% on the day, reversing yesterday’s declines.

• Despite the recovery in spot prices, BTC and ETH funding rates have remained relatively subdued since the start of the day, suggesting a more cautious approach from leveraged traders for now.
• BTC’s term structure of volatility has shifted, with the 7-day ATM implied volatility dropping to around 33%, down from around 39% yesterday. Meanwhile, ETH’s 7-day ATM implied volatility has rebounded this morning and is now trading above 61.11%.

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• U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have reported their ninth consecutive day of net inflows on Tuesday, with a total of $403M flowing into the funds.
• According to data from SoSoValue, BlackRock’s IBIT led the charge with a standout $416.35M in net inflows, while VanEck’s HODL followed with $19M.
• Collectively, spot Bitcoin ETFs have now accumulated $53.07B in total net inflows. Over the past nine trading sessions alone, the funds have attracted a substantial $4.4B.

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• XRP futures on CME, The Chicago Mercantile Exchange, broke a record, pushing daily volume past $235M on July 11 and total traded volume beyond $1.6B since launch. The milestone highlights growing interest in regulated XRP exposure through CME’s cash-settled contracts, available in both standard and micro sizes.
• On the record day, over 9,100 contracts traded—equivalent to 82M XRP—with micro XRP hitting their highest volume to date.
• XRP and Micro XRP futures debuted on May 19, 2025, providing regulated access via cash-settled contracts linked to CME’s XRP-to-USD Reference Rate.

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• U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation accelerated for the second consecutive month, rising to 2.7% YoY in June 2025, which was above the expected 2.6% – the highest since February 2025.
• While the evidence in June was mixed on how much influence tariffs had over prices, there were signs that the duties are having an impact.
• Vehicle prices fell on the month, with prices on new vehicles down 0.3% and used car and trucks tumbling 0.7%. However, tariff-sensitive apparel prices rose 0.4%. Household furnishings, which also are influenced by tariffs, increased 1% for the month.
• Petrol and fuel oil prices continued to fall, but natural gas prices remained elevated, limiting the overall decline in energy costs.

• U.K. inflation rose to 3.6% in June, up from 3.4% in May and still well above the Bank of England’s 2% medium-term target. Core CPI also climbed to 3.7%, driven by rising wages, energy costs, and National Insurance hikes.
• With GDP shrinking for a second month, the latest inflation data complicates the Bank’s policy path. The June MPC minutes noted inflation is likely to remain near current levels through year-end, before gradually returning to target in 2025. The committee stressed that given the outlook and ongoing disinflation, a gradual and careful approach remains appropriate — and that monetary policy is not on a fixed path.

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• Ripple, a leading blockchain technology company known for its cross-broader payment solutions and the digital asset XRP, has named Ctrl Alt, the B2B infrastructure solution provider, as its first major custody partner in the UAE, following the company’s recent involvement in the DLD project.

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• The Department of Justice (DOJ) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) have closed their investigations into crypto prediction market Polymarket without filing any charges. 

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• OKX has integrated the US dollar-pegged stablecoin, USDG, through the Global Dollar Network, enabling its users to access and convert USDG to USD at a 1:1 ratio with no fees.

This Week’s Calendar

Charts of the Day:

Figure 1. BTC at-the-money implied volatility across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes

Figure 2. ETH at-the-money implied volatility across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes

Figure 3. BTC 25-delta put-call skew ratio across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes

Figure 4. ETH 25-delta put-call skew ratio across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes