Post-FOMC Hawkishness Continues To Weigh On Risk Sentiment

Find out our latest reports, listed below:

• Bybit x Block Scholes Quarterly Report: Rise of Perp DEXs — and how to catch the opportunity

• How did options markets react to the crypto selloff?

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• Metaplanet Is Selling Vol, Who Is Next?

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• Bybit x Block Scholes August Volatility Review

Market Snapshot: Overnight Moves:

Daily Updates:

• Since the leverage flushout of October 10, BTC has remained trapped within a trading range of $105K and $115K. Yesterday, it fell to the lower bound of that range, extending a move lower that began after the mid-week FOMC press conference from Jerome Powell. After touching $106K however, it bounced back up to $110K. 
• The weakened sentiment is apparent both in ETF metrics and in derivatives markets for BTC. The cumulative net flow from Spot Bitcoin ETFs so far this week shows a net outflow of $607.4M. 
• While the volatility stress of October 10 has unwinded, ATM implied vol levels across the term structure nonetheless remain elevated relative to levels seen earlier in the month. At the start of October, one-week options contracts on BTC traded with an IV of 30%. 
• That blew up to as high as 53% during the weekend of President Trump’s message of an additional 100% in tariffs against China, and has since fallen to 40%. 
• Therefore, while front end vol has clearly dropped, options traders maintain strong demand for optionality at all tenors relative to the start of the month.
• Coupled with a still negative 25-delta skew across all maturities for BTC, options markets continue to point towards protection against downside price action. 

• ETH derivatives markets paint a similar picture. While ATM vol remains more sensitive to BTC, we see the same pattern of elevated volatility compared to the start of the month and a still-persistent skew towards OTM puts. 
• Spot ETH ETFs, however, are positive for the week. They have bought $114.3M of Ether since Monday, though ETH trades 3% lower on the week. 

• The rally in US equities also hit the brakes for a second consecutive trade session too – the S&P 500 dropped by 0.99%, while the US dollar strengthened and treasury yields across the curve rose slightly. 
• Gold has regained the $4,000 per ounce mark, after dropping to $3,900 in the aftermath of Chair Powell’s FOMC press conference. His more hawkish than expected stance combined with the US-China trade war detente saw a small pullback in the demand for haven assets. Spot gold is now heading for a second weekly drop and is down around 8% from its record high of $4,380 on Oct 20, 2025.
• According to the World Gold Council, central banks accelerated their purchases of gold in Q3 of 2025 — collectively the banks purchased 220 tons of bullion between July and September, a 28% increase compared to Q2. The biggest buyer was the National Bank of Kazakhstan. 
• The report also said that “Investors remained firmly in the driving seat in Q3” with ETFs marginally buying slightly more than central banks (222 tonnes in Q3). 

• Revolut have announced 1:1 conversions between USD and stablecoins (USDT and USDC), with no additional fees or spreads allowing users to exchange up to €500,000 every 30 rolling days.
• These markets will be supported across more than six supported blockchains, with Ethereum, Solana, and Tron named so far.

• According to onchain data, Ethereum digital asset treasury Bitmine has added a further 44,036 ETH at approximately $3,772.80 per ETH, totalling around $166M to its holdings.

• Coinbase Global Q3 2025 earnings exceeded analyst expectations with a revenue of $1.87B and net income of $433M ($1.50 per share), exceeding analyst expectations of $1.06 per share. 
• Transaction revenue rose to $1.05B, up from $572.5M a year earlier, while subscription and services revenue increased 34% to $746.7M, including $354.7M from stablecoin-related activities. 
• The company completed its $2.9B acquisition of Deribit, expanding into derivatives trading, and reported a 22% quarter-over-quarter rise in trading volumes and over 120% growth in institutional trading revenue.

This Week's Calendar:

Charts of the Day: