“No matter what, the United States will ensure the FREE FLOW of ENERGY to the WORLD”

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Market Snapshot: Overnight Moves

Daily Updates:

• After trading between $66K and $69K, a 5% rally over the past four hours has pushed BTC past $71K as the Middle East war continued for a fourth day. 
• US equities ended yesterday’s session down again with the S&P 500 closing 0.94% lower, partly recovering an earlier slide which saw it fall by as much as -2.5%. 

• That partial recovery came following an announcement from President Trump that the US Development Finance Corporation would provide political risk insurance guarantees to ensure safe passage of “ALL Maritime Trade, especially Energy” passing through the Strait of Hormuz “at a very reasonable price”. 
• Additionally, he added that “if necessary, the United States Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, as soon as possible” to ensure continued flow of trade and energy.
• In the same Truth Social post, Trump claimed that “No matter what, the United States will ensure the FREE FLOW of ENERGY to the WORLD”.
• The message helped reduce some of the fears of a surge in domestic energy costs in the US which helped ease the losses in US equities while causing crude oil, the US dollar and treasury yields to retreat from their intraday highs.
• The yield on 10-year Treasuries had risen 5bps to 4.1% before falling back towards 4.06%, while the US dollar ended up adding 0.6% (versus the intraday high of 1.1%).

• Both Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and New York Fed President John Williams warned that the US-Israel attacks on Iran would further complicate policymaking for the Fed.
• Kashkari said yesterday that “Right now it’s just too soon to know what imprint this has on inflation and for how long”.
• He had previously penciled in one 25bps rate cut in his outlook for 2026 but said he is now less confident with that projection about that call — “Now, with the geopolitical events, we need to get a lot more data in.”
• Williams made a similar comment stating that “We’ll have to see how persistent this is” in response to a question regarding the potential inflationary impact from rising energy costs.

• In a separate event Williams said that “If inflation follows the path I expect, further reductions in the federal funds rate will eventually be warranted to prevent monetary policy from inadvertently becoming more restrictive”. 
• According to the NY President, “the lack of second-round effects and well-anchored inflation expectations” means he expects “tariffs largely to have one-off effects on prices”.
• Kansas City President Jeff Schmid on the other hand said that the Fed has no “room to be complacent" given that inflation has been above “objective for nearly five years now” and in his view, is turning up in both tariff-impacted goods as well as in services. 
• He added that he has an optimistic outlook that artificial intelligence may down the line result in non-inflationary growth, though cautioned “we are not there yet.”

• South Korean regulators and lawmakers have reportedly agreed on a proposal to cap major shareholder ownership in cryptocurrency exchanges at 20%, a move aimed at reducing governance and control risks from concentrated stakes.
• The framework would also allow limited exceptions, with holdings of up to 34% permitted in cases defined later by the Financial Services Commission through enforcement decrees.
• The measure is expected to be folded into South Korea’s forthcoming Digital Asset Basic Act, which is intended to set a broader regulatory baseline for the sector and has faced timeline slippage from earlier targets.

• President Donald Trump said in his Truth Social post that the GENIUS stablecoin law is being “threatened and undermined” by banks, arguing they’re trying to weaken it while effectively holding up progress on broader crypto market structure rules.
• The dispute is over stablecoin rewards and yield - banks want tighter rules to limit or close off stablecoins that pay returns to holders, arguing this starts to look like an interest-bearing deposit product and could pull money out of the banking system.  
• In a post, Trump urged Congress to move quickly on the CLARITY Act. He framed the disagreement over stablecoin rewards as something that affects everyday Americans, saying people should be able to earn more on their money, and warned that delays could push the industry and innovation overseas.

• BTC miner MARA Holdings, updated its HODL strategy in its 10-K SEC filing, stating that in the second half of 2025 it “changed our digital asset management strategy to permit sales of bitcoin generated from operations,” and in 2026 “expanded the strategy to allow for sales of bitcoin held on our balance sheet.”
• As of Dec. 31, 2025, the company held 53,822 BTC, including 9,377 BTC loaned to counterparties and 5,938 BTC pledged as collateral for $350M in outstanding credit facilities.

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