MOVE At Its Lowest Since 2021

Find out our latest reports, listed below:

• Bybit x Block Scholes Quarterly Report: Rise of Perp DEXs — and how to catch the opportunity

• How did options markets react to the crypto selloff?

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• Metaplanet Is Selling Vol, Who Is Next?

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• Bybit x Block Scholes August Volatility Review

Market Snapshot: Overnight Moves:

Daily Updates:

• US equities closed at record highs for a second consecutive trading session, bolstered by news of new collaborations between AI-related companies. On the contrary, the majority of crypto assets are trading lower over the past 24 hours. 
• BTC touched $116K yesterday prior to the opening of the S&P 500, however, spent the rest of the day trading lower and eventually falling to a low of $112K.
• That marks a continuation of the same trend that has been apparent since October 10 — BTC has primarily traded between $105K and $115K, with very temporary wicks above or below those ranges. 
• ATM implied volatility levels remain at their new post-October 10 elevated levels, with implied vol across the term structure ranging from 39-45%. As we head into the FOMC meeting later today, where the implied-odds of a 25bps cut currently sit at 99.9%, put-call skew has reversed its upward steepening and once more prices in a bearish premium for downward protection (25-delta put-call skew for one-week contracts is -3.5%). 

• Also ahead of the Fed meeting, we note that volatility in US treasuries markets, as measured by Bank of America’s MOVE Index, has plunged to its lowest level since November 2021. The index is down more than 50% from its Liberation Day highs earlier this year. 

• The rally in US equities weakened towards the end of the session, culminating in the S&P 500 closing at +0.23%. That move was largely concentrated in gains in megacap tech companies. Microsoft finalised a new deal with OpenAI that will give the software company a 27% ownership in OpenAI, while Nvidia surged nearly 5% to close above $200. 
• Its CEO Jensen Huang said yesterday that the company’s Blackwell graphics processing units, its fastest AI chips, are now in full production in Arizona. Previously, the chips were manufactured solely in Taiwan.
• Huang said “The first thing that President Trump asked me for is ‘bring manufacturing back' … Bring manufacturing back because it’s necessary for national security. Bring manufacturing back because we want the jobs. We want that part of the economy.” 
• Nvidia also announced a $1B position in Nokia, who will use the proceeds to invest in its AI plans. 

• While crypto prices trade within the same ranges and US equities hit new highs, gold has started today’s session with a partial recovery following a three-day selloff. 
• Having fallen below $4,000 per ounce yesterday, bullion reclaimed that level earlier today, and is still up 46% year-to-date. As markets price in a near certainty of a rate cut later today, lower costs of borrowing increase the appeal of gold — a non-interest bearing asset. 

• Mt. Gox, once the world’s largest Bitcoin exchange which collapsed in 2014 after a hack that led to the loss of about 850,000 bitcoins, has once again postponed repayments to creditors, extending the deadline from October 31, 2025, to October 31, 2026. These repayments are anticipated to be valued at approximately $3.98B, given Mt. Gox holdings of around 34,689 BTC.

• Ethereum treasury firm, ETHZilla (NASDAQ: ETHZ) has sold about $40M worth of its over $400M ETH treasury reserve, to support its ongoing $250M stock buyback program. 
• The company’s buyback plans are aimed at narrowing the gap between its share price and net asset value. 
• ETHZilla has already bought back around 600,000 shares worth $12M since the program began on October 24 with the stock Ethzilla Corp up nearly 40% over the past 5 days to around $21.77. This is still far below its prior high of $107.

• World Liberty is distributing 8.4M WLFI tokens to participants of the USD1 points program through partner exchanges. Eligible users earned points by trading or holding USD1 on these exchanges.

• Western Union plans to introduce a dollar-backed stablecoin called the U.S. Dollar Payment Token (USDPT) built exclusively on the Solana blockchain, issued by Anchorage Digital Bank. The stablecoin will be integrated into Western Union's network, spanning 150 countries, with launch scheduled for the first half of 2026.

This Week's Calendar:

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