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Last Updated:  
October 1, 2025
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8 min read

Is Sentiment Starting to Recover?

A modest recovery in crypto-asset spot prices over the past 24 hours has had a noticeable impact on volatility smiles. Both BTC and ETH short tenor options have eroded much of their negative skew towards puts as we head into October, a month that has historically been bullish for BTC. Spot ETFs also reversed their recent run of outflows yesterday. US equities ended yesterday's trading session 0.3% higher while gold reached another all-time high. A slew of Fed speakers offered diverging views on the path of monetary policy.

Crypto
Derivatives
DeFi
Macro

Find out our latest reports, listed below:

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Market Snapshot: Overnight Moves:

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Daily Updates:

  • A modest recovery in crypto spot prices over the last 24 hours saw BTC touch $114K and pushed Ether past $4,200. The majority of the crypto market is green over the past 24 hours,  after range bound price action at the tail end of last week.
  • The move higher in spot prices has failed to inspire any noticeable increase in the implied vol of BTC or ETH options however, with the latter continuing to trade with a close to 2x premium over BTC’s levels. The rally in spot, on the other hand, has had a more noticeable impact on volatility smiles. 
  • Both BTC and ETH short tenor options have eroded much of their negative skew towards puts as we head into October (a month that has historically been bullish for BTC in particular). Now, 7-day BTC and ETH options trade with a near neutral skew at -1.1% and -0.65% for BTC and ETH respectively. 
  • U.S.-listed spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced a combined net inflow exceeding $1B on Monday. Bitcoin-focused ETFs recorded $522M in net inflows, while Ethereum ETFs attracted $547M, marking a reversal after five consecutive days of outflows.
  • Following these inflows, total assets under management for Ethereum ETFs now reach $27.5B, representing roughly 5.4% of Ethereum’s circulating market capitalization.
  • US equities also recorded modest gains in yesterday’s trading session, with the S&P 500 closing 0.3% higher while treasury yields across the curve fell. 
  • The 10 year treasury yield dropped to 4.14% as markets continue to weigh the odds of a US government shutdown by Oct 1, 2025. 
  • According to Polymarket, traders now see the probability of a shutdown at 85%. 
  • A slew of Federal Reserve officials also spoke yesterday, weighing in on their views on the path for monetary policy going forward. In an interview with CNBC, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who has notably been more hawkish than some other members of the central bank, said “I continue to see that we have pressure in inflation, both in the headline, in the core, and particularly where I’m worried about it is, I’m seeing it in services”. 
  • Hammack added “My forecast is that we’re going to remain above target for probably the next one to two years, and not really getting back down to our objective of 2% until the end of 2027 or early 2028.”
  • The Cleveland Fed President also does not agree with comments from some of her colleagues that tariffs will result in a “one-time price increase”, which has resulted in her having “one of the higher estimates of neutral on the committee.”
  • “I would only want to go into an accommodative stance if I saw a more material weakening on the horizon and I’m not seeing that.”
  • She is not the only official advocating for a slowdown in the rate of interest cuts either. St Louis President Alberto Musalem said he’s “open minded to future potential reductions in interest rates”, but “I do believe we need to tread cautiously because the room between now and the point where policy could become overly accommodative is limited.”
  • Whether inflation is being “generated by potential tariffs, by lower labour force growth, or for any reason” Musalem stressed that Fed officials should “lean against” inflation remaining above the 2% target.
  • New York  President John Williams has a slightly different view to the aforementioned policymakers however. To him, there has been a “kind of rebalancing of the risks, from one where inflation was the big risk to one where employment and inflation, the risks to them, have moved closer together”. 
  • That mirrors comments made by Chair Powell earlier this month during his FOMC press conference where he said the dual mandate risks “ may be not fully balanced, but moving in the direction of balanced, so that warrants a change in policy”. Williams echoed that sentiment from Powell, stating that “It made sense to move interest rates down a little bit”.
  • When asked about inflation, Williams said “The tariff effects have been smaller than most people thought, and there doesn’t seem to be any signs of inflationary pressures building”. 
  • The price of gold rallied to another record high in yesterday’s trading session, pushing past $3,800 per ounce and bringing its year to date performance to 45%. 
  • With that rally in gold prices, the US Treasury’s gold reserves have now surpassed $1T in value — more than 90 times what’s stated on the government’s balance sheet.
  • That’s because as set out by Congress in 1973, gold is valued on the Treasury’s books based on a value of $42.22 per ounce.
  • Other precious metals also increased, with silver prices rising 2.4% yesterday to trade at its highest levels since 2011.
  • Bitcoin-focused treasury firm Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has acquired an additional 196 BTC for approximately $22.1M, at an average price of $113,048 per bitcoin, according to an SEC 8-K filing. The purchases occurred between September 22 and September 28.
  • With this latest acquisition, Strategy’s total bitcoin holdings now stand at 640,031 BTC, valued at roughly $71.8B. The firm’s average cost per bitcoin across its portfolio is $73,983, resulting in a total investment of around $47.4B, including fees and expenses. 
  • Michael Saylor, Strategy’s co-founder and executive chairman, noted that these holdings account for more than 3% of Bitcoin’s total supply, representing approximately $24.4B in unrealized gains.
  • The recent purchases were funded through proceeds from at-the-market (ATM) offerings of the company’s Class A common stock (MSTR) and perpetual preferred stock issuances, including STRK, STRC, STRF, and STRD.
  • BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, has surpassed Deribit to become the largest Bitcoin options trading venue globally, Bloomberg reports. 
  • IBIT currently manages approximately $84.6B in assets, making it the largest Bitcoin ETF by capital. 
  • In total, ​​across all Bitcoin ETFs, total assets under management amount to roughly $150B, with IBIT alone accounting for about 57.5% of the market.

This Week’s Calendar:

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Charts of the Day:

Figure 1. BTC at-the-money implied volatility across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes
Figure 2. ETH at-the-money implied volatility across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes
Figure 3. BTC 25-delta put-call skew ratio across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes
Figure 4. ETH 25-delta put-call skew ratio across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes
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Thahbib Rahman
Research Analyst
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Find out our latest reports, listed below:

‍

‍

Market Snapshot: Overnight Moves:

‍

‍

‍

Daily Updates:

  • A modest recovery in crypto spot prices over the last 24 hours saw BTC touch $114K and pushed Ether past $4,200. The majority of the crypto market is green over the past 24 hours,  after range bound price action at the tail end of last week.
  • The move higher in spot prices has failed to inspire any noticeable increase in the implied vol of BTC or ETH options however, with the latter continuing to trade with a close to 2x premium over BTC’s levels. The rally in spot, on the other hand, has had a more noticeable impact on volatility smiles. 
  • Both BTC and ETH short tenor options have eroded much of their negative skew towards puts as we head into October (a month that has historically been bullish for BTC in particular). Now, 7-day BTC and ETH options trade with a near neutral skew at -1.1% and -0.65% for BTC and ETH respectively. 
  • U.S.-listed spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced a combined net inflow exceeding $1B on Monday. Bitcoin-focused ETFs recorded $522M in net inflows, while Ethereum ETFs attracted $547M, marking a reversal after five consecutive days of outflows.
  • Following these inflows, total assets under management for Ethereum ETFs now reach $27.5B, representing roughly 5.4% of Ethereum’s circulating market capitalization.
  • US equities also recorded modest gains in yesterday’s trading session, with the S&P 500 closing 0.3% higher while treasury yields across the curve fell. 
  • The 10 year treasury yield dropped to 4.14% as markets continue to weigh the odds of a US government shutdown by Oct 1, 2025. 
  • According to Polymarket, traders now see the probability of a shutdown at 85%. 
  • A slew of Federal Reserve officials also spoke yesterday, weighing in on their views on the path for monetary policy going forward. In an interview with CNBC, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who has notably been more hawkish than some other members of the central bank, said “I continue to see that we have pressure in inflation, both in the headline, in the core, and particularly where I’m worried about it is, I’m seeing it in services”. 
  • Hammack added “My forecast is that we’re going to remain above target for probably the next one to two years, and not really getting back down to our objective of 2% until the end of 2027 or early 2028.”
  • The Cleveland Fed President also does not agree with comments from some of her colleagues that tariffs will result in a “one-time price increase”, which has resulted in her having “one of the higher estimates of neutral on the committee.”
  • “I would only want to go into an accommodative stance if I saw a more material weakening on the horizon and I’m not seeing that.”
  • She is not the only official advocating for a slowdown in the rate of interest cuts either. St Louis President Alberto Musalem said he’s “open minded to future potential reductions in interest rates”, but “I do believe we need to tread cautiously because the room between now and the point where policy could become overly accommodative is limited.”
  • Whether inflation is being “generated by potential tariffs, by lower labour force growth, or for any reason” Musalem stressed that Fed officials should “lean against” inflation remaining above the 2% target.
  • New York  President John Williams has a slightly different view to the aforementioned policymakers however. To him, there has been a “kind of rebalancing of the risks, from one where inflation was the big risk to one where employment and inflation, the risks to them, have moved closer together”. 
  • That mirrors comments made by Chair Powell earlier this month during his FOMC press conference where he said the dual mandate risks “ may be not fully balanced, but moving in the direction of balanced, so that warrants a change in policy”. Williams echoed that sentiment from Powell, stating that “It made sense to move interest rates down a little bit”.
  • When asked about inflation, Williams said “The tariff effects have been smaller than most people thought, and there doesn’t seem to be any signs of inflationary pressures building”. 
  • The price of gold rallied to another record high in yesterday’s trading session, pushing past $3,800 per ounce and bringing its year to date performance to 45%. 
  • With that rally in gold prices, the US Treasury’s gold reserves have now surpassed $1T in value — more than 90 times what’s stated on the government’s balance sheet.
  • That’s because as set out by Congress in 1973, gold is valued on the Treasury’s books based on a value of $42.22 per ounce.
  • Other precious metals also increased, with silver prices rising 2.4% yesterday to trade at its highest levels since 2011.
  • Bitcoin-focused treasury firm Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has acquired an additional 196 BTC for approximately $22.1M, at an average price of $113,048 per bitcoin, according to an SEC 8-K filing. The purchases occurred between September 22 and September 28.
  • With this latest acquisition, Strategy’s total bitcoin holdings now stand at 640,031 BTC, valued at roughly $71.8B. The firm’s average cost per bitcoin across its portfolio is $73,983, resulting in a total investment of around $47.4B, including fees and expenses. 
  • Michael Saylor, Strategy’s co-founder and executive chairman, noted that these holdings account for more than 3% of Bitcoin’s total supply, representing approximately $24.4B in unrealized gains.
  • The recent purchases were funded through proceeds from at-the-market (ATM) offerings of the company’s Class A common stock (MSTR) and perpetual preferred stock issuances, including STRK, STRC, STRF, and STRD.
  • BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, has surpassed Deribit to become the largest Bitcoin options trading venue globally, Bloomberg reports. 
  • IBIT currently manages approximately $84.6B in assets, making it the largest Bitcoin ETF by capital.
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Find out our latest reports, listed below:

‍

‍

Market Snapshot: Overnight Moves:

‍

‍

‍

Daily Updates:

  • A modest recovery in crypto spot prices over the last 24 hours saw BTC touch $114K and pushed Ether past $4,200. The majority of the crypto market is green over the past 24 hours,  after range bound price action at the tail end of last week.
  • The move higher in spot prices has failed to inspire any noticeable increase in the implied vol of BTC or ETH options however, with the latter continuing to trade with a close to 2x premium over BTC’s levels. The rally in spot, on the other hand, has had a more noticeable impact on volatility smiles. 
  • Both BTC and ETH short tenor options have eroded much of their negative skew towards puts as we head into October (a month that has historically been bullish for BTC in particular). Now, 7-day BTC and ETH options trade with a near neutral skew at -1.1% and -0.65% for BTC and ETH respectively. 
  • U.S.-listed spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced a combined net inflow exceeding $1B on Monday. Bitcoin-focused ETFs recorded $522M in net inflows, while Ethereum ETFs attracted $547M, marking a reversal after five consecutive days of outflows.
  • Following these inflows, total assets under management for Ethereum ETFs now reach $27.5B, representing roughly 5.4% of Ethereum’s circulating market capitalization.
  • US equities also recorded modest gains in yesterday’s trading session, with the S&P 500 closing 0.3% higher while treasury yields across the curve fell. 
  • The 10 year treasury yield dropped to 4.14% as markets continue to weigh the odds of a US government shutdown by Oct 1, 2025. 
  • According to Polymarket, traders now see the probability of a shutdown at 85%. 
  • A slew of Federal Reserve officials also spoke yesterday, weighing in on their views on the path for monetary policy going forward. In an interview with CNBC, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who has notably been more hawkish than some other members of the central bank, said “I continue to see that we have pressure in inflation, both in the headline, in the core, and particularly where I’m worried about it is, I’m seeing it in services”. 
  • Hammack added “My forecast is that we’re going to remain above target for probably the next one to two years, and not really getting back down to our objective of 2% until the end of 2027 or early 2028.”
  • The Cleveland Fed President also does not agree with comments from some of her colleagues that tariffs will result in a “one-time price increase”, which has resulted in her having “one of the higher estimates of neutral on the committee.”
  • “I would only want to go into an accommodative stance if I saw a more material weakening on the horizon and I’m not seeing that.”
  • She is not the only official advocating for a slowdown in the rate of interest cuts either. St Louis President Alberto Musalem said he’s “open minded to future potential reductions in interest rates”, but “I do believe we need to tread cautiously because the room between now and the point where policy could become overly accommodative is limited.”
  • Whether inflation is being “generated by potential tariffs, by lower labour force growth, or for any reason” Musalem stressed that Fed officials should “lean against” inflation remaining above the 2% target.
  • New York  President John Williams has a slightly different view to the aforementioned policymakers however. To him, there has been a “kind of rebalancing of the risks, from one where inflation was the big risk to one where employment and inflation, the risks to them, have moved closer together”. 
  • That mirrors comments made by Chair Powell earlier this month during his FOMC press conference where he said the dual mandate risks “ may be not fully balanced, but moving in the direction of balanced, so that warrants a change in policy”. Williams echoed that sentiment from Powell, stating that “It made sense to move interest rates down a little bit”.
  • When asked about inflation, Williams said “The tariff effects have been smaller than most people thought, and there doesn’t seem to be any signs of inflationary pressures building”. 
  • The price of gold rallied to another record high in yesterday’s trading session, pushing past $3,800 per ounce and bringing its year to date performance to 45%. 
  • With that rally in gold prices, the US Treasury’s gold reserves have now surpassed $1T in value — more than 90 times what’s stated on the government’s balance sheet.
  • That’s because as set out by Congress in 1973, gold is valued on the Treasury’s books based on a value of $42.22 per ounce.
  • Other precious metals also increased, with silver prices rising 2.4% yesterday to trade at its highest levels since 2011.
  • Bitcoin-focused treasury firm Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has acquired an additional 196 BTC for approximately $22.1M, at an average price of $113,048 per bitcoin, according to an SEC 8-K filing. The purchases occurred between September 22 and September 28.
  • With this latest acquisition, Strategy’s total bitcoin holdings now stand at 640,031 BTC, valued at roughly $71.8B. The firm’s average cost per bitcoin across its portfolio is $73,983, resulting in a total investment of around $47.4B, including fees and expenses. 
  • Michael Saylor, Strategy’s co-founder and executive chairman, noted that these holdings account for more than 3% of Bitcoin’s total supply, representing approximately $24.4B in unrealized gains.
  • The recent purchases were funded through proceeds from at-the-market (ATM) offerings of the company’s Class A common stock (MSTR) and perpetual preferred stock issuances, including STRK, STRC, STRF, and STRD.
  • BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, has surpassed Deribit to become the largest Bitcoin options trading venue globally, Bloomberg reports. 
  • IBIT currently manages approximately $84.6B in assets, making it the largest Bitcoin ETF by capital.

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