First Red October Since 2018

Find out our latest reports, listed below:

• Bybit x Block Scholes Quarterly Report: Rise of Perp DEXs — and how to catch the opportunity

• How did options markets react to the crypto selloff?

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• Metaplanet Is Selling Vol, Who Is Next?

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• Bybit x Block Scholes August Volatility Review

Market Snapshot: Overnight Moves:

Daily Updates:

• BTC trades just above $107K, having spent the weekend sideways between $108K and $111K. Last month was the first time since 2018 that it had a negative gain in October. That run of monthly gains every October had earned the month the nickname ‘Uptober’; though this year BTC fell -3.69%. 
• ATM implied volatility in options markets also remains elevated. BTC’s vol term structure is flat with IV levels ranging between 43% and 45%, while for ETH we see the same compressed term structure at higher levels of vol (65% to 68%). 
• For BTC, volatility smiles remain skewed towards put contracts at all tenors. Therefore, so far at least, the month of November has not brought about much change in sentiment from the month that preceded it, both in spot and options markets. 

• While BTC may have ended the month in the red, US equities ended the month with one last small burst as the S&P 500 closed 0.26% higher on Friday. Since the April tariff turmoil, the index is now up nearly 40%. 

• While Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish comments in last week’s FOMC meeting were directed more towards the December meeting, a slew of different Fed officials have come out raising their concerns about the October choice to cut interest rates also. 
• During a conference in Dallas on Friday, Cleveland President Beth Hammack said “I would have preferred to have held rates steady at this meeting” referring to October. 
• “I do think we need to maintain some amount of restriction to help get inflation back down to target.
• Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan also said on Friday “I’d find it difficult to cut rates again in December unless there is clear evidence that inflation will fall faster than expected or that the labor market will cool more rapidly” 
• While neither Logan or Hammack were on the voting committee this year, they rotate onto the panel in 2026.

• On Friday, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeff Schmid, who was on the voting panel, explained why he dissented in the meeting and opted for no rate cut. Schmid said “By my assessment, the labour market is largely in balance, the economy shows continued momentum, and inflation remains too high” 
• He added “I do not think a 25-basis point reduction in the policy rate will do much to address stresses in the labour market that more likely than not arise from structural changes in technology and demographics … However, a cut could have longer-lasting effects on inflation if the Fed’s commitment to its 2% inflation objective comes into question.”
• According to these members at least, the failure to get inflation to the 2% target requires more attention, particularly as the federal funds rate gets closer to the neutral level. 

• According to Chair Powell’s assessment, policy is still “modestly restrictive”, though rates are now in the range where “many estimates of the neutral rate live, in that 3 to 4% area.” Last week he said “there’s a growing chorus now of feeling like maybe this is where we should at least wait a cycle”. 
• Not all members are as hawkish as Friday’s speakers however. Speaking on Fox Business, Governor Christopher Waller, said “The biggest concern we have right now is the labour market” and “We know inflation is going to come back down, so this is why I’m still advocating that we cut policy rates in December, because that’s what all the data is telling me to do.”
• He downplayed the inflation risks in the economy arguing that “If you take off what we estimate is potentially-temporary tariff effects, inflation is, in the PCE, which is what we look at, running at about 2.5% … So yeah, it’s not at 2, but it’s not that much higher, and we expect it to be coming down.”

• The White House issued a fact sheet over the weekend, confirming some of the details of the trade pact negotiated between President Trump and President Xi. 
• According to the statement, China has agreed to allow exports of various critical metals into the US as part of the recently announced trade truce.
• “China will issue general licenses valid for exports of rare earths, gallium, germanium, antimony, and graphite for the benefit of US end users and their suppliers” and “China will suspend the global implementation of the expansive new export controls on rare earths and related measures that it announced on October 9, 2025.” 
• In turn, the US will halt implementation of its 100% tariff increase on China for another year and reduce fentanyl-related tariffs 

• France’s National Assembly has approved an amendment introducing a 1% annual tax on “unproductive wealth,” which includes cryptocurrencies, if an individual’s total idle assets exceed €2M. The proposal, part of the 2026 national budget discussions, will now advance to the Senate for review.
• The initiative, put forward by centrist lawmaker Jean-Paul Matteï on October 22, was narrowly approved in a 163–150 vote late Friday, gaining support from both socialist and far-right parties. If ratified, the policy would come into effect on January 1, 2026.
• Under the proposed legislation, digital assets including Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies would be categorised as “unproductive assets,” alongside luxury properties and collectibles. Individuals with holdings above €2M ($2.3M) in these asset classes would be subject to a uniform 1% tax on the excess amount. This represents a departure from France’s current progressive wealth tax structure, where assets below €800,000 ($922,000) are exempt, and holdings above €10M are taxed at 1.5%.

• Hong Kong is set to permit crypto trading platforms, licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC), to provide liquidity via global order books. 
• Currently, crypto exchanges can only run local order books, meaning all trades (bid and asks) are matched within Hong Kong.
• The new rules will give traders access to greater liquidity and bring crypto trading more in line with Hong Kong’s traditional financial regulations.

• UAE telecom giant Du has introduced a new platform called Cloud Miner, providing Cloud Mining as a Service (MaaS) that allows UAE residents to earn returns from Bitcoin mining through subscription-based plans.
• Customers can purchase contracts that allocate a specific amount of hashing power, starting from 250 terahashes per second (TH/s), with mining rewards distributed directly in Bitcoin to their crypto wallets. Du oversees all aspects of the operation, including hardware management, power supply, and technical maintenance.
• Effectively, Du is renting out the mining power (Bitcoin hashing capacity) they operate, allowing users to access Bitcoin Mining returns without having to run their own mining setups.

This Week's Calendar:

Charts of the Day: