A 5% Long Bond Marks Its Longest Run Since the 2007 Financial Crisis

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In Today's Note

• The US 30-year Treasury yield has held above 5% for its longest stretch since the 2007 financial crisis. Risk assets slipped with the backdrop, as Brent jumped to $98 on widening US-Iran strikes and the S&P 500 fell for a fourth loss in five sessions, while BTC eased back below $66K after nearing $67K on Tuesday.
• BitMEX will permanently close on 23 September, ending an 11-year run after its parent's board approved a wind-down. Senate Republicans released updated CLARITY Act text, though several Democrats withheld support over its ethics language, while Arbitrum-based AFX Trade suffered a $24.15M bridge exploit and TRON was added to the new S&P Pantera Digital Asset Index.

Market Snapshot: Overnight Moves

Macro & Markets

• Continued geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran saw Brent crude jump to $98 a barrel and coincided with a risk-off move across other asset classes.
• BTC struggled to hold up at the near-$67K level it traded at on Tuesday, though continues to consolidate above $65K.
• The S&P 500 declined 0.14%, its fourth loss in five trading days, alongside a larger 0.54% drop in the Nasdaq-100 which saw losses extend to -0.8% intraday. The closely watched chipmakers gauge, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Sector index, ended the day slightly higher however, up 0.44%.
• Following the selloff in tech and AI-related stocks last week, earnings reports from major tech companies have been under a microscope.
• Google's parent company Alphabet Inc. reported more than $119B in total revenue between April and June 2026, up 24% compared to the same period last year, while its net profit tripled to over $112B in the quarter.
• Despite the beat, traders showed skepticism, with Alphabet Inc.’s stock falling more than 3% after hours.
• Geopolitical developments continued to dominate headlines after both Washington and Tehran indicated a lack of willingness to return back to diplomatic talks.
• President Trump wrote on Truth Social that “From this point forward”, the US "will bomb and destroy ONE BRIDGE OR POWER PLANT," including those around Tehran, any time Iran's military "shoots at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz."
• At a rally in Georgia, Trump also reiterated the point that despite "getting hit so hard", Iran is still not considering fresh talks, "They're not ready to make a deal because every time they make a deal, they want to change it and everything".
• Meanwhile, speaking after Iran’s Interior Minister met with Pakistani mediators, a spokesperson for the Iranian ministry said, "There are no negotiations, it's only possible for there to be an exchange of messages … Our new message is that the enemy violated the memorandum and should implement it", referring to the June 17 interim ceasefire that has since been broken.
• News agencies in Iran also reported that if the US escalated its attacks to Iranian bridges and power plants, "Iran will strike infrastructure and bridges in the region, including energy facilities in which the US has interests".
• Separately, Iranian-backed military group, the Houthis, said it attacked two Saudi Arabian oil tankers in the Red Sea with missiles and drones.
• For now, the extent of damage on the two ships is unclear, however the move indicates another level of escalation in the conflict, and could bring another maritime chokepoint for energy markets to a close, Bloomberg reported that some vessels are already now avoiding passing through the Bab el-Mandeb strait at the Southern tip of the Red Sea.
• In US treasury markets, the yield on the 30-year bond has now traded above 5% for its longest period of time since the start of the Great Financial Crisis.
• In 2026, the 30-year yield closed above 5% for 27 days, equivalent to 19% of all sessions year-to-date; in 2007 it traded above 5% for 50 days.

DeFi / Web3 / Altcoins / Crypto

• BitMEX, a crypto derivatives exchange, will permanently close on Sept. 23, 2026 at 04:00 UTC, ending an 11-year run after the board of parent company HDR Global Trading completed a strategic review.
• From Aug. 26, users will only be able to reduce existing positions before the exchange begins winding down markets ahead of the shutdown, while withdrawals will remain available after the closure.
• KYC-verified customers who leave funds on the platform past the deadline will face a monthly fee equal to the greater of $50 or 1% annually, while BitMEX said its assets exceed liabilities and no customer funds have ever been lost to hacks.
• Senate Republicans released updated text for the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, but several Democrats said they would withhold support unless its ethics, consumer-protection and market-integrity provisions are strengthened.
• The current ethics language would bar public officials and their spouses from issuing or sponsoring digital assets, place enforcement with the Justice Department and expire in January 2029, drawing criticism that it does too little to address President Donald Trump’s crypto interests.
• Crypto groups welcomed the bill’s regulatory framework and developer protections, while major banking associations argued its stablecoin provisions could pull deposits away from traditional lenders.
• AFX Trade, an Arbitrum-based trading protocol, suffered a bridge exploit that drained roughly $24.15M in USDC.
• The attacker reportedly moved the funds from Arbitrum to Ethereum and swapped them for about 12,467 ETH, while Offchain Labs said Arbitrum’s native bridge was not compromised.
• AFX suspended its bridge and offered the attacker a 30% white-hat bounty for returning the remaining 70% of the stolen assets.
• Payward, the parent company of crypto exchange Kraken, partnered with financial infrastructure provider GTN to expand its xStocks tokenized-equity platform beyond U.S. markets, starting with shares listed in Hong Kong.
• Subject to regulatory approvals, the companies plan to expand into the UK, Europe, South Korea and other markets, with GTN providing execution, custody and record-keeping infrastructure across more than 90 markets.
• TRON, a blockchain network, has been included in the new S&P Pantera Digital Asset Index, a benchmark developed by S&P Dow Jones Indices and Pantera Capital to evaluate blockchain networks based on metrics including utility, liquidity and network activity.
• TRON DAO said the network now supports more than 394M user accounts and over $90B in USDT, with roughly $4.5T in USDT transfer volume year-to-date, according to Token Terminal.
• Circle, the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, signed separate partnerships with Kakao Group and Toss Bank to explore blockchain-based payment infrastructure and stablecoin payment rails in South Korea.
• The agreements expand Circle's push into the Korean market, following partnerships earlier this year with the country's largest crypto exchanges, Upbit and Bithumb.

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