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Last Updated:  
December 31, 2025
7 min read

Year-End ETF Filings Surge

FOMC minutes leaned neutral-to-slightly hawkish, with policymakers open to further cuts but favouring holding rates “for some time”; markets price just a 13.8% chance of a January cut. The dollar remains weighed by expected 2026 policy divergence, while gold and silver rebounded on renewed Fed-independence concerns. Crypto sentiment firmed as US spot bitcoin ETFs saw $355M of inflows, spot ETH ETFs added $67.84M, and XRP ETFs extended a 30-day inflow streak. Year-end product momentum continued with Bitwise filing 11 new crypto strategy ETFs and Grayscale seeking the first US spot Bittensor ETF.

Find out our latest reports, listed below:

Market Snapshot: Overnight Moves

Daily Updates:

  • Yesterday, the minutes of the December 9-10 FOMC meeting were released.
  • Policymakers signalled that further rate cuts would likely be appropriate if inflation continues to decline over time, but the minutes also showed clear caution on the path ahead: some participants saw keeping interest rates on hold appropriate “for some time.”
  • Several participants also pointed to the risk of higher inflation becoming established and suggested that lowering the policy rate further in the context of elevated inflation readings could be misinterpreted as implying diminished policymaker commitment to the 2% inflation objective.
  • Markets are largely aligned with that message. Pricing implies just a 13.8% probability of a 25bp cut at the next FOMC meeting on January 27-28, reinforcing expectations for a near-term pause.
  • Despite the minutes’ slightly hawkish lean, the dollar continues to face underlying weakness.
  • A key driver is the expected policy divergence in 2026: the FOMC is expected to cut rates by about 50bp, while other central banks look likely to hold or raise rates.
  • Gold and silver prices settled sharply higher on Tuesday, recovering some of Monday’s dive. Concerns over Fed independence boosted safe-haven demand for precious metals after President Trump said he “still might” fire Fed Chair Powell.
  • Trump has said he will announce his selection for the new Fed Chair in early 2026, and Bloomberg reported that National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is the most likely choice. 
  • On Tuesday, U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs returned to net inflows, snapping a seven-session run of outflows and signalling a firmer tone to year-end positioning. Total daily net inflows were $355M.
  • Spot Ethereum ETFs also turned positive, ending a four-day streak of outflows with $67.84M in net inflows.
  • Flows were constructive across the broader complex as well. Spot ETFs linked to Ethereum, XRP, Solana and Dogecoin all recorded net inflows on the day, reinforcing the view that demand is broadening beyond bitcoin. Notably, spot XRP ETFs have now logged 30 consecutive days of net inflows.
  • According to the U.S. Department of Labor, initial jobless claims fell by 16,000 to 199,000 in the week ending 27 December, well below expectations of 220,000.
  • The print was the lowest since January excluding the Thanksgiving-distorted week, when claims briefly dipped to 192,000.
  • Continuing claims also eased, falling to 1.89M in the week ending 20 December from a downwardly revised 1.91M.
  • Year-end has also brought a fresh wave of ETF activity.
  • Bitwise filed applications with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for 11 new cryptocurrency “strategy” ETFs on Tuesday.
  • The filings were submitted via an N-1A, and the proposed structure would combine direct token holdings with indirect exposure through other exchange-traded products.
  • Under the framework described, each ETF would invest up to 60% of assets directly in the relevant cryptocurrency, with the balance allocated to one or more exchange-traded products designed to provide additional exposure.
  • The filing also allows for the use of derivatives, including futures and swap agreements, which implies these vehicles could be managed with both cash and synthetic tools to shape exposure and liquidity.
  • The 11 proposed strategy ETFs seek exposure to Aave, Canton (CC), Ethena (ENA), Hyperliquid (HYPE), NEAR, Starknet (STRK), Sui, Bittensor (TAO), Tron (TRX), Uniswap (UNI), and Zcash (ZEC). 
  • Grayscale filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to convert the Grayscale Bittensor Trust (TAO) into an exchange-traded fund yesterday, marking the first U.S. spot ETF designed to provide direct exposure to Bittensor.
  • The filing comes shortly after Bittensor’s native token, TAO, underwent the network’s first halving event in mid-December, a supply-schedule milestone that reduced the pace of new token issuance.
  • According to the registration statement, the proposed ETF would list on NYSE Arca under the ticker GTAO.
  • Coinbase Custody Trust Company LLC and BitGo Trust Company, Inc. are named as custodians in the filing. 
  • MMA.INC, a combat-sports Web3 platform, has signed an MOU with World Liberty Financial (WLFI) to work together on building and rolling out MMA.INC’s Web3 token ecosystem.
  • Under the agreement, the two parties will collaborate on token design and governance, on-chain economic modelling, stablecoin reserve and treasury design, and integrating WLFI’s USD1 stablecoin into MMA.INC platforms for payments, rewards and access.
  • WLFI will also join MMA.INC’s Strategic Advisory Board, with a stated focus on token economics, compliance and longer-term ecosystem stability.
  • Trump Media (DJT) plans to distribute a new blockchain-based token to shareholders in partnership with Crypto.com, with allocations linked to investors’ DJT holdings.
  • The company is positioning the token as a rewards-style asset, not equity, stating it will not represent ownership, may be non-transferable, and may not be redeemable for cash, with potential benefits tied to Truth Social, Truth+, and Truth Predict.

This Week’s Calendar:

Charts of the Day:

Figure 1. Block Scholes BTC Risk-Appetite Index (white, left-hand axis) and BTC spot price (orange, right-hand axis)

Figure 2. Block Scholes ETH Risk-Appetite Index (white, left-hand axis) and ETH spot price (purple, right-hand axis)

Figure 3. BTC at-the-money implied volatility across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes

Figure 4. ETH at-the-money implied volatility across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes

Figure 5. BTC 25-delta put-call skew ratio across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes

Figure 6. ETH 25-delta put-call skew ratio across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes
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Find out our latest reports, listed below:

Daily Updates:

  • Yesterday, the minutes of the December 9-10 FOMC meeting were released.
  • Policymakers signalled that further rate cuts would likely be appropriate if inflation continues to decline over time, but the minutes also showed clear caution on the path ahead: some participants saw keeping interest rates on hold appropriate “for some time.”
  • Several participants also pointed to the risk of higher inflation becoming established and suggested that lowering the policy rate further in the context of elevated inflation readings could be misinterpreted as implying diminished policymaker commitment to the 2% inflation objective.
  • Markets are largely aligned with that message. Pricing implies just a 13.8% probability of a 25bp cut at the next FOMC meeting on January 27-28, reinforcing expectations for a near-term pause.
  • Despite the minutes’ slightly hawkish lean, the dollar continues to face underlying weakness.
  • A key driver is the expected policy divergence in 2026: the FOMC is expected to cut rates by about 50bp, while other central banks look likely to hold or raise rates.

Market Snapshot: Overnight Moves

Find out our latest reports, listed below:

Daily Updates:

  • Yesterday, the minutes of the December 9-10 FOMC meeting were released.
  • Policymakers signalled that further rate cuts would likely be appropriate if inflation continues to decline over time, but the minutes also showed clear caution on the path ahead: some participants saw keeping interest rates on hold appropriate “for some time.”
  • Several participants also pointed to the risk of higher inflation becoming established and suggested that lowering the policy rate further in the context of elevated inflation readings could be misinterpreted as implying diminished policymaker commitment to the 2% inflation objective.
  • Markets are largely aligned with that message. Pricing implies just a 13.8% probability of a 25bp cut at the next FOMC meeting on January 27-28, reinforcing expectations for a near-term pause.
  • Despite the minutes’ slightly hawkish lean, the dollar continues to face underlying weakness.
  • A key driver is the expected policy divergence in 2026: the FOMC is expected to cut rates by about 50bp, while other central banks look likely to hold or raise rates.

Market Snapshot: Overnight Moves