To cut or not to cut

Daily Updates:

In case you missed it, below is our most recent report where we analyse the history of fee generation on Ethereum and Solana, covering when and why Solana overtook the Ethereum blockchain in daily fees generated. Additionally, we explore the impact of recent Ethereum upgrades on total fees generated on the Ethereum mainnet: Fee Generation on Ethereum and Solana

‍

• After climbing higher for six consecutive sessions, US equities finally took a break as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 ended yesterday with a 0.39% and 0.37% slump, respectively. 
• The S&P 500 has gained in 18 of the last 22 trading sessions, up 15% from one month ago – this is only the 8th time since 1980 that the index has maintained such a win streak. 

‍

• US equities may have slid, but Bitcoin failed to show signs of a slowdown yesterday. Over the past week it has traded within a band of $101K and $107K, but so far failed to breach that upper bound. Early today however, BTC briefly touched $107.9K before dropping back slightly. 
• BTC toying with its January all-time high of $109K has inspired renewed optimism in derivatives markets – options skew has steepened significantly towards calls across tenors, with the put-call skew now at 6.2% for the 7-day tenor. 
• Implied volatility across BTC’s term structure has also rebounded back to 46% at the front-end, as traders now price in the highest volatility expectations so far this month. 
• For ETH short-tenors, OTM calls once again trade with a premium to puts, as the 7-day tenor skew is now tilted towards calls by 3.41%, after being close to neutral yesterday. 

‍

• A slew of Fed speakers this week have suggested that they favour the patient, wait-and-see approach that Chair Powell has advocated for in his own recent comments. New York Fed chief John Williams said “It’s not going to be that in June we’re going to understand what’s happening here, or in July” and that it’s about “watching things as they develop”.  
• Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told Bloomberg that if the Trump administration continues to extend its ongoing trade negotiations then “that starts to push much further into the summer, in which case we won’t actually know what the true effects are going to be for several months after that”. 
• As a result, markets are now pricing in a 10% chance of a rate cut in the June FOMC meeting, and see a stronger chance of the first rate cut this year coming in September. 
• During a conference yesterday, San Francisco President Mary Daly argued that the Fed should not move “abruptly or quickly when we don’t need to because we don’t have enough information”. 
• Speaking on the same panel, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated that “right now I think the best action we can take is to sit on our hands and really carefully go through the data”. 
  
  
• The SEC has once again delayed its decision on 21Share’s proposed spot-based XRP ETF. Similarly, it has also postponed the Grayscale’s Dogecoin ETF application.These delays follow the Commission’s deferral of Solana ETF proposals just yesterday, highlighting a continued cautious approach toward action-based ETFs.

‍

• Former Coinbase executives raised $11M to launch True Markets, a non-custodial mobile trading app for retail users based on the Solana blockchain and initially supporting Solana-based tokens. Set to launch this week, the app features a mobile-first design and decentralized asset custody via Turnkey wallets.

‍

• Trump Tower Dubai, a $1 billion real estate development, now accepts cryptocurrency payments for condos and penthouses, enabled through a partnership with stablecoin provider Deus X Pay. Announced by Eric Trump, Donald Trump’s son and Executive Vice President of the Trump Organisation, payment options include Bitcoin and other digital currencies.

This Week’s Calendar:

Charts of the Day:

‍