The Fed Meeting That Can Change Everything?

Find out our latest reports in partnership with Bybit, listed below:

• Bybit x Block Scholes Quarterly Report: What will drive crypto in Q3 2025?

• Bybit x Block Scholes July Volatility Review

• Bybit x Block Scholes Quarterly Report: Altcoin season and the evolving role of Bitcoin

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Daily Updates:

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• The Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting is set to conclude today, with the highly anticipated rate announcement expected to deliver the first cut to short-term interest rates of 2025.
• The meeting opened with the swearing-in of Stephen Miran, a White House economist confirmed by the Senate late Monday in a fast-tracked vote. Miran immediately joined the Fed’s board of governors, and will cast a vote on today’s rate decision. Seen as a strong advocate for deeper cuts, he may dissent in favour of a 50 basis point reduction.
• Analysts suggest that as many as three of the seven governors could dissent from a modest 25 basis point cut, favouring a larger half-point reduction—a level of dissent not seen since 1988.
• Futures-implied rate cut odds show a 96% probability that the Fed will deliver a 25 basis point cut, bringing its key policy rate at  4%-4.25%.

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• Gold prices eased slightly on Wednesday. Spot gold fell 0.5% to $3,671.61 an ounce, following a record all-time peak of $3,702.95 on Tuesday.

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• The term structures of volatility have compressed for BTC and ETH options markets after a rise higher in demand for short-term optionality to the levels of longer dated expirations.
• This indicates some signs of position taking ahead of the Fed’s Wednesday meeting as we see more action at expirations covering the event.
• The skews of those short-tenor volatility smiles are moderately bearish for both coins once again, after briefly pricing a more neutral stance just yesterday.
• However, while spot and options markets indicate a side-ways “wait-and-see” slog ahead of the meeting, Spot ETFs have been quietly accumulating in the second week of September. Net inflows to BTC products total $2.8B since Sep 8, while ETH products have seen a net total of $935M over the same period.

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• As markets await the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate announcement, inflation figures from several major economies were already released.

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• The Euro Area’s annual core inflation rate remained steady at 2.3% in August 2025, marking the fourth consecutive month at this level. This figure aligns with the preliminary estimate and slightly exceeds initial market expectations of 2.2%.
• Core Inflation is currently at its lowest since October 2021.
• The UK’s annual inflation rate held steady at 3.8% in August 2025, unchanged from July and remaining close to the highs last seen in January 2024, in line with market expectations.
• On a monthly basis, CPI increased 0.3% in August, following a 0.1% rise in July, in line with the forecasts. Annual core inflation eased to 3.6% from 3.8%.

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• Ethereum-focused treasury accumulation firm, The Ether Machine has filed an SEC Form S-4 to go public via a merger with special-purpose acquisition company (SPAC), Dynamix Corporation.
• The Ether Machine currently stands as one of the top corporate Ethereum holders with over 495K ETH, valued at over $2.1B.

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This Week’s Calendar:

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Charts of the Day:

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