Kalshi and Polymarket are Tightening Controls around Insider Trading and Market Manipulation

Find out our latest reports, listed below:

• Block Scholes x Panoptic: Bridging The Onchain Convexity Gap

• Volatility Report: February 2026

• 2026 – the year of RWA perps?
  

• Bybit x Block Scholes: “2026: It's Different This Time?”

Market Snapshot: Overnight Moves

Daily Updates:

• President Trump’s announcement yesterday of a five-day reprieve from hitting Iranian energy infrastructure and “VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS” between the two sides sparked a fresh bout of volatility across financial markets. 
• BTC surged vertically higher to $71K and has since remained above the psychological $70K region. Over the past 24 hours, BTC is up 3.9%, while ETH is up 5.3%. SOL in particular has outperformed – up 6.5%.

• The possibility of a de-escalation in the Middle East conflict (which has now lasted four weeks now) also saw Brent crude oil prices plunge nearly 15% before trimming some of the losses, while the S&P 500 rose 1.15% and gold spot price jumped from $4,100 per ounce to over $4,400. 
• Ten-year treasury yields fell as much as 12bps following Trump’s initial Truth Social post, while two-yield tumbled more than 20bps from their highs and now currently trade around 3.88%. 

• Despite President Trump claiming a “top person” is representing Iran in the discussions with the US (who is not the Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei) and that positive talks could lead to the US and Iran jointly controlling the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian state-linked media has widely denied that any talks of diplomacy have taken place with US officials. 
• The state-run Fars News Agency said that “there has been no direct or indirect contact”, while also adding that Trump had “backed down” after being warned Iran would target “all power plants in West Asia.”
• Trump told reporters on Monday that “Iran has one more opportunity to end its threats to America and their allies, and we hope they take it. It could very well end up being a very good deal for everybody” and that oil prices will “drop like a rock” once a deal is reached.

• Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said there is a scenario in which the central bank’s next move is a rate hike, not a cut, with moves dependent on the fallout of the Middle East conflict. 
• “We could be back to the environment with multiple rate cuts for the year if inflation behaves. I could see circumstances where we would need to raise rates if it was going a different way, and inflation was getting out of control”, Goolsbee said during an interview with CNBC. 
• For now, most economic indicators show the Fed is “closer to full employment than we are on the target on the inflation side, so at the moment, I think the inflation has got to be a little ahead of the employment” according to the Chicago president. 

• One of his Fed counterparts, Governor Stephen Miran also argued that central bank policy should not be based on short-term considerations related to the US-Iran war, but on their longer-term impact. 
• Miran said “We should wait for all the information to come in before really changing our outlook. I think it’s just still premature to have a clear view about what this is going to look like as you look 12 months out.”
• Miran said he still maintains his pre-war outlook of four rate cuts this year, citing that “inflation ⁠risks have got a little more concerning, but the unemployment risks have gotten more concerning too, because the negative supply shock that is the oil price is also a negative demand shock.”

• OKX has launched more than 20 equity perpetual swaps, bringing 24/7 crypto-native access to major global stocks and indices for users in eligible markets, according to their statement today.
• The initial lineup includes the "full Magnificent 7" - Nvidia, Tesla, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta - alongside crypto-linked equities such as Strategy, Coinbase, Robinhood and Circle, as well as tech names including Palantir, Intel and Sandisk.
• The contracts are USDT-settled, offer up to 5x leverage, and are being rolled out across Asia, the CIS region, Latin America, Türkiye and other eligible jurisdictions.
• Crucially, users can post BTC, ETH, USDT and even assets held in OKX’s Trading Account Auto Earn as collateral, meaning margin can remain yield-generating while being deployed across positions.   

• Strategy stated in its official press release that it is expanding its capital-raising platform with new at-the-market programmes for up to $21B of STRC preferred stock and $21B of MSTR common stock.
• The filing also adds new sales agents, keeps prior MSTR and STRC issuance programmes in place, replaces the prior STRK programme with a new $2.1B STRK facility, and rebalances authorised preferred share counts.

• ParaFi Capital has reportedly raised $125M for a new venture fund.
• According to Bloomberg, the New York-based firm is focusing the new capital on areas such as stablecoins, tokenisation and institutional onchain finance.
• Outside the new fund, ParaFi has also raised a further $325M for its broader digital asset strategies since the start of 2025, bringing total assets under management to around $2B.

• Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 ecosystem is scaling quickly, with aggregate open interest climbing 25% in a week to a record $1.74B on Sunday, March 21st, before easing slightly to $1.73B.
• Most of that activity remains concentrated on Trade.xyz, which accounts for more than 90% of total HIP-3 open interest, with trading focused mainly on tokenised real-world asset markets such as WTI crude, Brent crude and silver.
• We had already flagged this trend in our Daily Comment in January, when Hyperliquid pointed to a surge in commodities trading pushing open interest on HIP-3-deployed decentralised exchanges to fresh highs, with onchain data then showing OI above $790M.

• Delaware lawmakers have introduced two new bills aimed at strengthening oversight of digital assets, both of which are currently under review by the Senate Banking Committee.
• Delaware Payment Stablecoin Act (SB 19) proposes a licensing framework for payment stablecoin issuers and digital asset service providers, including requirements around reserves, compliance, and consumer protection. 
• Delaware Banking Modernization Act of 2026 (SB 16) would update the state’s banking laws for the first time since 1981 by defining digital assets as personal property and allowing state-chartered banks to hold and manage them in a fiduciary capacity.

• Kalshi and Polymarket are tightening controls around insider trading and market manipulation as Senate scrutiny of prediction markets intensifies.
• Kalshi has introduced new screening tools to stop political candidates from trading on their own races and is extending similar protections to sports markets through integrity-monitoring lists designed to block athletes, coaches, referees and other insiders.
• Polymarket, meanwhile, has strengthened its market oversight by updating its Terms of Use and the Polymarket US Rulebook, alongside launching dedicated Market Integrity pages that explain how enforcement works in practice. 
• The new rules tighten restrictions on insider trading — including “Trading on stolen confidential information,” which bars trading on non-public information obtained in breach of a duty of trust; “Trading on illegal tips,” which prohibits using improperly shared confidential information from another party; and “Trading by those who can influence the outcome,” which prevents individuals with direct control or influence over an event from trading on it.

This Week’s Calendar:

Charts of the Day: