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Last Updated:  
April 20, 2026
8 mins

“IRAN HAS JUST ANNOUNCED THAT THE STRAIT OF IRAN IS FULLY OPEN AND READY FOR FULL PASSAGE”

US–Iran headline volatility has driven a sharp reversal in risk sentiment, with Friday’s optimism around an open Strait of Hormuz lifting BTC above $78K and supporting equities, before weekend escalation knocked BTC back to around $74K, pushed Brent above $95, and sent S&P futures lower. Even so, crypto fund flows stayed firm, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs taking in $996M last week and spot Ethereum ETFs adding $276M, both their strongest weekly inflows since mid-January. Separately, crypto markets also absorbed major idiosyncratic news, most notably the estimated $292M Kelp DAO rsETH exploit that left Aave facing sizeable bad debt, while Cobo, Coinbase and Strategy all announced fresh product or capital-markets developments.

Find out our latest reports, listed below:

Market Snapshot: Overnight Moves

Daily Updates:

  • The erratic moves towards and away from diplomacy between the US and Iran since Friday last week has had a rollercoaster effect on risk-sentiment. 
  • BTC briefly rose past $78K on Friday, its highest level since the onset of the war more than seven weeks ago, after Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz “completely open”. That was then confirmed by President Trump in a flurry of social media posts:
  • President Trump wrote “IRAN HAS JUST ANNOUNCED THAT THE STRAIT OF IRAN IS FULLY OPEN AND READY FOR FULL PASSAGE”
  • Then in a post shortly after, “THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS COMPLETELY OPEN AND READY FOR BUSINESS AND FULL PASSAGE, BUT THE NAVAL BLOCKADE WILL REMAIN IN FULL FORCE AND EFFECT AS IT PERTAINS TO IRAN, ONLY”
  • Following those messages on Friday, Brent crude oil fell below $90, while the S&P 500 closed its third consecutive week with gains of more than 3%. The Nasdaq-100 finished its 13th straight session higher — a win streak last seen in 1992.
  • Then on Sunday, the President’s tone shifted after he claimed “Iran decided to fire bullets yesterday in the Strait of Hormuz — A Total Violation of our Ceasefire Agreement!” and that the US would wipe out "every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran" if Tehran walks away from a U.S. nuclear deal”. 
  • He told ABC News that despite the “very serious violation” of the ceasefire, a deal “will happen. One way or another. The nice way or the hard way. It’s going to happen. You can quote me.”
  • The US navy also seized an Iranian vessel in the Gulf of Oman. 
  • Iranian state media on Sunday claimed that the nation would not partake in any talks with the US as long as its navy blockade was still in place. 
  • As the mixed messages cast doubt anew over the prospects of a permanent peace plan, Monday has begun with risk-off moves across macro assets. S&P 500 futures contracts are down 0.52% BTC is trading around $74K and Brent crude oil is back above $95 per barrel. 
  • U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their strongest week of net inflows since mid-January, extending their run of positive flows to three consecutive weeks.
  • Based on SoSoValue data, the funds attracted $996.4M last week, marking the largest weekly intake since the week ending January 16 and bringing cumulative inflows over the past three weeks to more than $1.8B.
  • Spot Ethereum ETFs also saw a notable pickup in demand, posting $275.8M in net inflows over the same period, their highest weekly total since January 16. 
  • Kelp DAO experienced an estimated $292M exploit on April 18, 2026, involving its rsETH token, where a breakdown in cross-chain validation within its LayerZero bridge infrastructure allowed the creation of roughly 116,500 rsETH, around 18% of total circulating supply, without underlying backing.
  • The attacker deposited the unbacked rsETH into Aave V3, using it as collateral to borrow against.
  • On Aave V3, approximately $236M in WETH was borrowed, with the protocol experiencing heavy liquidity withdrawals estimated at $5–6B as users exited positions.
  • Several lending pools reached full utilization, which limited further withdrawals and disrupted normal market functioning.
  • Aave has been left with an estimated $177M–$236M in bad debt related to the WETH borrowed against the compromised collateral.
  • Following the incident, multiple lending platforms including Aave, SparkLend, Fluid, and Upshift suspended or restricted rsETH markets.
  • Singapore-based Cobo has launched an agentic wallet for AI-led onchain execution, with built-in guardrails aimed at improving control and security.
  • The product supports more than 80 blockchains, including Ethereum, Base, Arbitrum, Optimism, Polygon and Solana, and uses a “Pact” mechanism to define execution limits and termination conditions for each task.
  • Cobo said the wallet also incorporates multi-party computation, positioning the product as a more secure framework for AI agents handling real onchain activity.
  • Coinbase has launched crypto-backed lending in the UK, allowing eligible users to borrow up to $5M in USDC against bitcoin, ether and cbETH via Morpho on Base.
  • The product offers variable interest rates, no fixed repayment schedule and collateral-based liquidation thresholds.
  • The rollout follows the U.S. launch in January 2025, where Coinbase says total loan originations have now exceeded $2.17B in USDC as of April 14, 2026.
  • Strategy has proposed increasing the dividend frequency of its STRC preferred stock from monthly to semi-monthly, with a shareholder vote scheduled for June 8 and potential implementation beginning with a June 30 record date and July 15 payout.
  • The change would apply to its Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock, which targets a $100 par value and currently offers an annualized yield of around 11.5%, with rates reset monthly to support price stability.
  • The firm indicates that more frequent distributions could shorten reinvestment cycles and improve trading dynamics, following strong recent activity in STRC, including a $1.1B trading day, as part of its broader preferred equity issuance strategy used to fund bitcoin accumulation.

This Week’s Calendar:

Charts of the Day:

Figure 1. Block Scholes BTC Risk-Appetite Index (white, left-hand axis) and BTC spot price (orange, right-hand axis)
Figure 2. Block Scholes ETH Risk-Appetite Index (white, left-hand axis) and ETH spot price (purple, right-hand axis)
Figure 3. BTC at-the-money implied volatility across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes
Figure 4. ETH at-the-money implied volatility across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes
Figure 5. BTC 25-delta put-call skew ratio across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes
Figure 6. ETH 25-delta put-call skew ratio across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes
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Find out our latest reports, listed below:

Daily Updates:

  • The erratic moves towards and away from diplomacy between the US and Iran since Friday last week has had a rollercoaster effect on risk-sentiment. 
  • BTC briefly rose past $78K on Friday, its highest level since the onset of the war more than seven weeks ago, after Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz “completely open”. That was then confirmed by President Trump in a flurry of social media posts:
  • President Trump wrote “IRAN HAS JUST ANNOUNCED THAT THE STRAIT OF IRAN IS FULLY OPEN AND READY FOR FULL PASSAGE”
  • Then in a post shortly after, “THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS COMPLETELY OPEN AND READY FOR BUSINESS AND FULL PASSAGE, BUT THE NAVAL BLOCKADE WILL REMAIN IN FULL FORCE AND EFFECT AS IT PERTAINS TO IRAN, ONLY”
  • Following those messages on Friday, Brent crude oil fell below $90, while the S&P 500 closed its third consecutive week with gains of more than 3%. The Nasdaq-100 finished its 13th straight session higher — a win streak last seen in 1992.

Market Snapshot: Overnight Moves

Find out our latest reports, listed below:

Daily Updates:

  • The erratic moves towards and away from diplomacy between the US and Iran since Friday last week has had a rollercoaster effect on risk-sentiment. 
  • BTC briefly rose past $78K on Friday, its highest level since the onset of the war more than seven weeks ago, after Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz “completely open”. That was then confirmed by President Trump in a flurry of social media posts:
  • President Trump wrote “IRAN HAS JUST ANNOUNCED THAT THE STRAIT OF IRAN IS FULLY OPEN AND READY FOR FULL PASSAGE”
  • Then in a post shortly after, “THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS COMPLETELY OPEN AND READY FOR BUSINESS AND FULL PASSAGE, BUT THE NAVAL BLOCKADE WILL REMAIN IN FULL FORCE AND EFFECT AS IT PERTAINS TO IRAN, ONLY”
  • Following those messages on Friday, Brent crude oil fell below $90, while the S&P 500 closed its third consecutive week with gains of more than 3%. The Nasdaq-100 finished its 13th straight session higher — a win streak last seen in 1992.

Market Snapshot: Overnight Moves