“If we don’t adjust policy down, then I think that we do run risks”

Find out our latest reports, listed below:

• DeepBook - “The Backbone of Sui DeFi Liquidity”

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• Premia x Block Scholes: Introducing Kyan

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• Bybit x Block Scholes Quarterly Report: Rise of Perp DEXs — and how to catch the opportunity

• How did options markets react to the crypto selloff?

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Market Snapshot: Overnight Moves

Daily Updates:

• The first trading session of the holiday week saw US equities on track for a Santa rally before year-end. The S&P 500 gained 0.64%, bringing the benchmark index close to its record high, as more than 400 shares within the index rose. US tech stocks also rallied on Monday, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 closing up 0.46%.
• Precious metals continued their upward ascent on Monday also — gold prices hit a record high, surpassing their October peak, while silver also advanced to a new record. 
• Part of the safe-haven rally has been attributed to a continuation of the Fed’s cutting cycle (markets are pricing in two more rate cuts in 2026) as well as intensifying geopolitical tensions (the ongoing US blockade on Venezuelan oil and President Trump weighing military action in Venezuela). 

• For now, however, the beginnings of a Santa Rally have not extended to crypto. BTC rose towards $90K during Asian trading hours — however it ultimately failed to hold the $90K level and for most of the US trading session, it slowly fell lower. It now trades at $87K, with the psychological $90K level continuing to act as a strong area of resistance. 
• Another headwind on BTC’s current price is a slowdown in Spot ETF inflows. Yesterday, the nine Spot BTC funds sold $142.2M worth of bitcoins, marking the third straight outflow session. Since the October 10 liquidation event, Spot ETFs, which have coincided with most spot rallies since their launch, have failed to see more than five consecutive days of net buying. 
• Nonetheless, after lingering close to historical lows (levels of extreme panic), our Risk Appetite Index for BTC and ETH continue to show tentative signs of forming a bottom.

• Speaking on Bloomberg TV yesterday, Fed Governor Stephen Miran said that the central bank is at risk of causing a recession if it fails to lower interest rates next year. Miran, who is arguably the most dovish voting member on the FOMC said, “If we don’t adjust policy down, then I think that we do run risks” during an interview with Bloomberg. 
• According to Miran, “The unemployment rate has poked up potentially above where people thought it was going to go. And so we’ve had data that should push people into a dovish direction”. Additionally, Miran expressed his view that the neutral rate of interest might still be some distance away — “You sort of get into territory where you can start micromanaging instead of big cuts … And I don’t know whether we’re here yet, or it would sort of still take a couple more cuts to get there.”

• JPMorgan Chase & Co. is reportedly considering plans to offer crypto trading to its institutional clients, in another sign of the bank’s tighter integration into the digital assets space. 
• According to Bloomberg, the bank’s markets division is assessing new products and services it can offer in the crypto space, such as spot and derivatives trading. 
• According to the article, JPMorgan’s efforts are in response to increasing interest from the bank’s clients following the Trump administration’s regulatory efforts to make the US the “crypto capital of the world”.

• Coinbase has agreed to acquire The Clearing Company, a prediction-markets startup, as it expands event-based trading within its “everything exchange” strategy.
• The Clearing Company, founded this year by former Polymarket and Kalshi growth lead Toni Gemayel, raised a $15M seed round in August and positioned itself around an onchain, regulated approach.
• The deal is expected to close in January. Coinbase says most of the roughly 10-person team will join to help scale the offering. Financial terms were not disclosed. A Coinbase spokesperson said the amount was “immaterial” and confirmed the consideration will be a mix of cash and Coinbase stock.

• BitMine (BMNR), the NYSE-listed Ethereum treasury vehicle led by Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee, is reported to have added another $88M of ETH to its balance sheet.
• On-chain data cited by Arkham and shared by Lookonchain suggests purchases of 29,462 ETH routed via BitGo and Kraken, though the company has not formally confirmed those specific transactions.
• What BitMine has confirmed on Monday is the broader trajectory: it disclosed buying 98,852 ETH last week, taking total holdings to 4,066,062 ETH at an average cost basis of $2,991 per coin, implying a treasury of roughly $12B at current prices.
• Management continues to frame the strategy around its “alchemy of 5%” ambition, targeting 5% of ETH’s circulating supply.

• ETHZilla, the Peter Thiel-backed firm that pivoted to an ETH-based digital-asset treasury earlier this year, has sold $74.5M of ETH to retire debt. The company said it sold 24,291 ETH to fund the redemption of its senior secured convertible notes, and now holds 69,802 ETH worth roughly $207M.
• As the firm put it: “As part of redeeming our outstanding senior secured convertible notes, ETHZilla sold 24,291 ETH,” as stated on their X account.
• “We plan to use all, or a significant portion, of the proceeds to fund the redemption.”
• Formerly the Nasdaq-listed biotech 180 Life Sciences, the company now holds 69,802 ETH worth about $207M.
• It has been a repeat seller: in October, ETHZilla sold $40M of ETH as part of a $250M stock repurchase plan. 

• Michael Saylor’s Strategy hit pause on bitcoin buying last week, opting to strengthen its dividend backstop instead. The company added $748M to its USD dividend reserve, lifting the fund to $2.19B from the $1.44B buffer created earlier this month, according to an SEC filing.
• The shift breaks a two-week accumulation run in which Strategy bought more than 21,000 BTC for roughly $1.9B. Even with the brief pause, its bitcoin position remains unchanged at 671,268 BTC, no buys and no sales, – still the largest corporate bitcoin treasury among publicly traded digital-asset treasury firms.
• Saylor’s usual “green dots” hint appeared on Sunday, but no purchase followed.
• The firm’s long-term message is unchanged: BTC remains the core treasury asset, with cash reserves designed to fund dividends and operations.

• Kalshi has added BNB Smart Chain (BSC) support - Native BNB and stablecoin deposits are now live on BNB Smart Chain.
• Domestic accounts can now deposit and withdraw native BNB and USDT directly on BSC. International users can access BSC flows via connected exchange accounts such as Binance and Coinbase, with support for BNB plus USDT and USDC.
• The company frames the rollout as a step toward “omni-chain” access, reducing friction for participants who already hold assets on major networks and broadening the channels through which liquidity can reach Kalshi’s markets.

This Week’s Calendar:

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Charts of the Day: