Ethereum’s Fusaka Upgrade Went Live
BTC has retraced its early-month drop, trading back around $93k after a brief move to $94k, while 7D ATM implied volatility has fallen from 56% on 1 Dec to 45% and short-dated skew has compressed from a 16 vol-point put premium in late November to about 3%. ETH is up over 4.5% in the past 24 hours, back in the $3,000–3,100 range and supported by $140.2m of spot ETF purchases, with 7D volatility smiles shifting from double-digit premia for out-of-the-money puts in November to briefly pricing a 1.5 vol-point call premium before reverting towards neutral. US 2Y Treasury yields have moved below 3.5% after ADP reported a 32k fall in November private payrolls versus expectations of a 10k gain, the fourth decline in six months and driven by a 120k drop in employment at firms with fewer than 50 employees. American Bitcoin added 502 BTC to take its treasury to 4,367 BTC, BitMine bought 48,623 ETH and now controls over 3% of supply, while Franklin launched a Solana spot ETF, Grayscale listed a Chainlink trust, and Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade went live on 3 December, increasing blob capacity to help lower L2 data costs.

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Market Snapshot: Overnight Moves

Daily Updates:
- After a sharp selloff from $91K to $84K at the start of the month, BTC has more than pared back those losses, currently trading at $93K. Intraday yesterday, it rose to $94K, a level it last traded at in mid-November.
- Since the short-lived inversion in the term structure of ATM implied volatility at the start of the month, markets have now lowered their forward looking expectations for volatility across all maturities, particularly between 7 and 30 days.
- 7D ATM IV spiked to as much as 56% on Dec 1, and now trades 10 percentage points lower at 45%.
- BTC options markets have also reversed much of their bearish skew towards put contracts alongside the rally in spot price. While not yet skewed bullishly, short-tenor 25-delta skew shows only a 3% premium towards out-the-money put contracts — far lower than the 16 vol point premium on Nov, 22.
- The broader crypto market has also benefitted from the relief rally in BTC, with Ether up more than 4.5% in the past 24 hours, fully reclaiming the psychological $3000-3,100 level.
- ETH was also supported by inflows from its Spot-based ETFs which reversed two days of cumulative outflows and purchased $140.2M of the asset yesterday.
- The reclaiming of $3,000 bolstered a significant change in ETH’s volatility smiles earlier today — for the first time since late October, 7-day vol smiles showed a skew towards OTM call options, with calls commanding a 1.5 vol point premium over similarly dated puts. At the time of writing, the skew-ratio is currently at neutral levels — still a remarkable turnaround from the 10%+ premiums assigned to puts in November.
- US equities also saw a modest 0.3% gain in yesterday’s mid-week trading session, while treasury yields across the curve fell on evidence of a further slowdown in the US labour market. The yield on two-year treasuries fell below 3.5%.
- According to ADP Research, private-sector payrolls in the US decreased by 32,000 jobs in November, the largest cut to private employment since March 2023.
- Over the past six months, payrolls have declined four times — and the figure came in far lower than the median estimate in Bloomberg’s survey which estimated a 10,000 gain.
- According to Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, “Hiring has been choppy of late as employers weather cautious consumers and an uncertain macroeconomic environment … And while November’s slowdown was broad-based, it was led by a pullback among small businesses.”
- The report showed that companies with less than 50 employees shed 120,000 jobs, the largest one-month drop since May 2020.
- Trump linked mining firm, American Bitcoin, has acquired an additional 502 BTC, bringing its total treasury to 4,367 BTC. This move comes after a sharp drop on its stock price on Dec 2, from $3.70 to $1.80, driven by the unlocking of pre-merger private placement shares, allowing early investors to take profits for the first time.
- Franklin Templeton has introduced the Franklin Solana ETF, adding a dedicated Solana vehicle to its existing crypto product range.
- The fund, which launched on Wednesday under the ticker SOEZ on NYSE Arca, is notable for incorporating staking rewards directly into the ETF structure, giving investors regulated access to both SOL price exposure and on-chain yield in a single listed product.
- The Grayscale Chainlink Trust (GLNK) also made its debut on NYSE Arca, recording 1.17M shares traded and $13.8M in first-day volume. LINK is currently priced at $14.57, up a modest 0.2% over the past 24 hours.
- BitMine, the Ethereum treasury firm, has reportedly added another $150M in ETH, buying 18,345 ETH via BitGo and 30,278 ETH via Kraken, according to Arkham.
- The company now controls over 3% of Ethereum’s circulating supply and is targeting 5%, continuing to accumulate through drawdowns.
- Ethereum’s 17th major upgrade, Fusaka, went live on mainnet on 3 December, just seven months after Pectra and marking the start of a planned twice-a-year hard-fork cadence.
- The release is centred on PeerDAS (EIP-7594), a new data availability sampling scheme that lets validators sample blob data instead of downloading it in full, enabling higher blob throughput and materially lower Layer 2 costs without increasing node bandwidth.
- Alongside this, “Blob Parameter Only” updates will progressively raise per-block blob targets to 14 and a maximum of 21 by 7 January, with overall blob capacity expected to rise by up to 8x.
- Fusaka also tightens fee mechanics with a blob base fee minimum and proportional fees when L2 activity spikes, aiming to stabilise rollup pricing and make ETH burns more predictable.
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