Chasing Blocks

Daily Updates:

• Bitcoin staged a swift rebound today, climbing back to $119K after briefly dipping near $117K earlier in the session. Despite the price fluctuations, BTC’s 7-day at-the-money implied volatility stayed relatively low—briefly rising above 32% before settling around 30% as the market calmed.
• ETH climbed more than 2% in 24 hours, briefly approaching the $3,900 mark last seen yesterday. BTC, in comparison, is up less than 1% over the same period. ETH’s 7‑day ATM implied volatility jumped from 63% to about 70%.
• Option skews underscored this turbulence. BTC’s 3‑day 25‑delta put‑call skew swung from ‑3% to +3%, a sharp reversal that points to shifting sentiment. ETH’s skew traced a similar path, flipping from around ‑2% to nearly +3%.

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• Notably, SOL has surged 28% over the last three weeks, ending nearly two months of downward pressure. This rebound has boosted sentiment in the derivatives market, though caution remains.
• The perpetual futures funding rate for SOL stands at an annualised rate of 16%, indicating moderate optimism among retail traders.
• Despite the recent gains, SOL still lags behind the broader altcoin market. For comparison, ETH surged 51% and XRP climbed 41% over the same three-week span. While SOL is now near a five-month high around $185.

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• European stocks rose modestly as strong earnings eased tariff worries. The Stoxx 600 gained 0.6%, and S&P 500 futures climbed 0.2%. Meanwhile, the dollar extended its momentum, hitting a five-week high and pushing the euro lower.

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• The July U.S. FOMC meeting is tomorrow, with interest rates expected to remain steady at 4.25-4.50%, as indicated by nearly 97% probability on both CME FedWatch and Polymarket.
• However, traders are pricing in a quarter-point cut at the Fed’s mid-September meeting, with about 100 basis points of easing anticipated over the next year.

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• Texas manufacturing showed early signs of recovery in July as the Dallas Fed’s general business activity index rose to 0.9 from ‑12.7, ending five months of contraction. Factory output surged, with the production index hitting 21.3, its highest in over three years.
• New orders remained negative at ‑3.6, but improved from June, while shipments and capacity use turned positive. Hiring and work hours both picked up, and business sentiment turned optimistic for the first time in six months.

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• ARK Invest added $20M in BitMine Immersion Technologies, buying 572,853 shares across ARKK, ARKW, and ARKF, while trimming stakes in Coinbase, Block, and Robinhood. 
• The move follows BitMine’s Ether holdings surpassing $2B, making it the largest ETH treasury holder with 566,800 ETH. 
• Despite ARK’s buying spree, BitMine shares fell 11.8% on Monday after an intraday drop of 27%.

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• RAKBank, also known as the National Bank of Ras Al Khaimah (P.J.S.C), has announced today the launch of a new crypto brokerage service accessible through its mobile app, allowing retail customers to seamlessly buy, sell, and swap cryptocurrencies using Bitpanda’s platform. This launch marks RAKBank as the first traditional bank in the UAE to provide crypto trading directly to its clients. Currently available by invitation, the service will gradually expand to a wider customer base in the coming months.
• All transactions will be settled in AED, removing the need for foreign currency conversions and associated fees. Customers can manage crypto trades directly from their RAKBank current or savings accounts, simplifying the transfer of funds between banking and crypto platforms.

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• Bitmain, a Chinese Bitcoin mining hardware manufacturer, announced its plans today to open its first U.S. factory and establish a new headquarters in Texas or Florida. The company will recruit about 250 local employees and aims to begin production in early 2026.

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• Ethereum treasury protocol, ETH Strategy, has raised 12,342 ETH ($46.M) in pre-launch funding through a private presale, public sale, and puttable warrants. Investors will receive STRAT tokens subject to a four-month lockup followed by a gradual release.

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• ETH Strategy plans to deploy 11,817 ETH to core activities like ETH staking and liquidity provision, while allocating 525 ETH to development, security audits, and community programs. The protocol offers leveraged exposure to ETH without traditional risks such as margin liquidations or volatility decay.

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• On July 28, 2025, Cboe Equities Exchanges submitted rule filings to the SEC proposing to list and trade shares of the Canary Staked INJ ETF and the Invesco Galaxy Solana ETF, both under BZX Rule 14.11(e)(4).
• INJ is the native token of DeFi centric Layer 1 blockchain, Injective. Despite the news, the token price is down approximately 6.4% (24hrs), yet has rallied overall this month, up around 36%. 

This Week’s Calendar:

Charts of the Day:

Figure 1. BTC at-the-money implied volatility across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes

Figure 2. ETH at-the-money implied volatility across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes

Figure 3. BTC 25-delta put-call skew ratio across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes

Figure 4. ETH 25-delta put-call skew ratio across selected tenors. Source: Deribit, Block Scholes